REASONS TO PLAY KEENELAND
APRIL 8, 2005
by Richard Nilsen
Keeneland’s slogan is “racing at its finest,” and with low takeouts, great
racing and an overall attractive wagering card, it has little trouble delivering
on that promise.
Benefit from the Low Takeout
Kentucky racing offers one of the best takeout structures in the
country. Straight wagers (win, place and show) are “taxed” at only 16 percent,
meaning a healthy 84 percent of the handle is returned to the betting public.
Where it really gets good is with the exotics, especially multi-race wagers. All
exotic wagers have a 19 percent takeout, well below the national average.
Considering that most tracks have takeouts of at least 25 percent for wagers
such as trifectas, superfectas and Pick 6s, Keeneland is clearly a bargain for
shrewd horseplayers who factor in the price of their wagers.
Focus on Top Quality Racing
The racing cards cater to the high profile barns that ship in from out
of state. There are a few claiming races written, but none on the turf. The only
grass races are allowance events and stakes, so the quality of these events is
typically very high.
No less than 19 stakes have been written for the spring meet, with 15 of them
graded. The April 16 Blue Grass S. (G1) is always a pivotal stepping stone to
the Kentucky Derby (G1), and a stellar field is lining up for this year’s
edition.
Turf Lovers’ Galore
Keeneland’s turf racing can be a prime reason to play this meet on a
daily basis. One of only three sand-based turf courses in United States along
with Churchill Downs and Turf Paradise, Keeneland’s grass consistently benefits
closers. It takes an exceptional horse to wire a turf field here, as most front
runners begin to peter out at the eighth pole as the winner is often seen
making a sweeping, strong rally on the outside.
According to TSN’s 2005 Track Stats book for Kentucky (available online
through the Brisnet.com Bookstore), only 13 percent of all turf routes were won
in front-running fashion last year. It is wise to favor horses with a strong
late run, preferably breaking from an inside post. Some outfits point
specifically toward Keeneland turf events with a high rate success. Knowledge of
these top barns and how conditioners have performed in turf races at Keeneland
can yield some nice payouts.
Races are rarely taken off the grass course at Keeneland, so one doesn’t have
to worry about wasting time handicapping a turf race only to find out the race
has been switched. However, when the turf is wet, an edge can be found by
identifying runners with a proven affinity for yielding or soft courses.
Exploiting the Track Bias
The main track often produces a rail bias that directly benefits runners
breaking sharply from inside posts. Get stuck on the outside at Keeneland, even
in one-turn races, and winning can prove difficult.
Exploiting the Keeneland track biases is the main reason many professional
players salivate at the thought of opening day. The Lexington, Kentucky, oval
can be one of the most biased tracks in the country and “being tuned into it”
can prove to be very lucrative.
The first thing to keep an eye on is whether or not the “golden rail” exists.
If so, speed horses that grab the rail early will prove difficult to beat. When
this bias is strong, wire-to-wire winners capture race after race, sometime at
very lucrative prices.
During the past two spring meets, the “golden rail” bias was very erratic and
failed to materialize on most days. That makes the races more difficult to
handicap, especially for players used to a reliable track bias. Therefore, it is
crucial to dissect the first couple of races each day to determine if any bias
is at play.
One factor you can almost always rely on involves two-turn dirt races at 1
1/16 miles. The starting gate for this commonly run distance is close to the
first turn and the stretch run is short, making it conducive to speed horses
breaking from inside posts.
Jockeys and Streaks
At meets such as Keeneland, high-profile riders win most of the races. At last
year’s fall meet, for instance, Pat Day and Rafael Bejarano combined to win 46
races. That’s about three on each card.
The first few days usually set the tone for the remainder of the meet. Stay
away from jockeys who start off cold. They rarely recover and will burn a lot of
money. The bigger the name, the more important it is to take notice. Good luck!
Reprinted with permission of “The HorsePlayer Magazine”