HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 2, 2005
by Dick Powell
Why are some day’s races faster than others? On tracks that have similar
maintenance performed on them, the variances from day to day can be staggering.
The answer could be as simple as the weather.
Horses in races perform anaerobic exercise — they go into oxygen debt — and
secrete lactic acid. The conditions of the air that they breathe can influence
how far and fast they can run at full speed.
In harness racing, the fastest times are usually run when it is hazy, hot and
humid. Races run during the day are generally faster than those run after the
sun sets. A hot, summer afternoon of racing at the Meadowlands can yield times
that are a full second faster than if they were run at night.
Hot weather leads to fast running times. At least within reason. If the
temperature exceeds 100 degrees, the effects of heat stroke and dehydration can
be severe. Plus, if the horse has had to spend six hours in a detention barn
before the race in very hot weather, all bets are off.
Humidity also helps. The heavier the air, the more oxygen it contains and the
equine athlete is able to delay the inevitable state of oxygen debt.
When harness races are run at night, times can slow down as the night’s races
progress. A race run at 8 p.m. can be faster than the same race run at 11 p.m.
With the sun down and temperatures dropping, races tend to slow down.
Here’s an exception that proves the rule. In 1988, Mack Lobell broke Nevele
Pride’s long-standing world record for a trotter on a half-mile track at
Saratoga Raceway. The race didn’t go off until 11:20 p.m. that night, but it was
a brutal, sultry night in August when the post time temperature was still over
90 degrees. Normally a race run that late at night wouldn’t be conducive to a
world record, but the hot, steamy weather made it possible.
So if we wanted to go for a world record we would want the race to be run
during the day when it is hot and humid.
Quarter Horse racing gives us some insight into other ideal conditions. Just
like harness racing, daytime racing is faster than nighttime racing. Wind is
critical and Quarter Horse past performances tell you if the race was run into a
headwind, had a tailwind or a crosswind. And time of the day is also important.
In many of the big-money Quarter Horse races, qualifying trials are run in
order to gain entry into the semifinals or finals with the winning times
determining who advances. There have been many instances of top horses not
advancing through the trials since the wind shifted against them or their trial
was later in the afternoon. With as many as 15 qualifying heats, the least
little change in the weather can spell doom to even the fastest horses.
With most of the races being run at a quarter-mile or less, air quality
becomes less important. Heavy air is not a help at all at the shorter distances
since it takes less oxygen to utilize in a very short period of time. In fact,
thin air helps Quarter Horses run faster times. Races run at altitude, like in
New Mexico or Colorado, can yield faster times than those run at sea level since
the air is easier to run through and provides less resistance. Even though there
is less oxygen in the air at higher altitudes, the fact that the races are so
short means the horse barely goes into oxygen debt.
In the 1968 Summer Olympics, held at 8,000 feet above sea level in Mexico
City, sprint races and jumping events were all at or near world-record
performances with the thinner air providing less resistance. However, in races
at 800 meters and longer, the winning times were inordinately slow. The presence
of the thinner air did not make up for the fact that the air contained so little
oxygen, and athletes who didn’t train at high altitudes suffered.
So the thin air at high altitude results in the short races to be run faster and longer races to be run slower.
Even at 350 yards, the weather
conditions and changing temperatures affect the winning times, which are timed
down to a thousandth of a second.
So what are we to learn from all this? For one, pay attention to the
temperature notation in the charts. An unusually cool day in the summer might
explain why many of the races were run slower than normal. An unusually warm day
in spring or fall might explain why many of the races were run faster than
normal.
Harness racing places the temperature at the start of the day’s races right
next to the track condition in the horse’s past performances. They obviously
think it’s important, and it’d be nice if Thoroughbred past performance lines
included it as well. Why not go a step further and have the temperature for each
race and not just at the start of the day’s races?
Wind direction and speed would also be helpful, but it will obviously change
during the day like it did at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. If we had the graphic
of the track’s layout with compass directions, we could then take information
like “winds from the NW at 15MPH” and determine if it was a tailwind down the
backstretch. The National Weather Service provides this information for the area
in which the track is located and a track could have its own measuring
equipment. Track and field has wind measuring devices to ensure that sprints and
jumping events are not aided too much by a tailwind. It can’t be that hard to
do.
If you are at the track or watching on a simulcast monitor, note which way the flags are blowing in the infield and how strong the wind appears.
Even if you are not able to figure out the effect of the wind on the running of
the race, it might help you understand variances in final times.
*****
Churchill Downs finished its 2005 Fall Meet last Saturday. Racing Secretary
Doug Bredar was kind enough to send me a ream of paper to help me print the many
pages of past performances due to their large fields. When the package came I
made sure it wasn’t ticking and then had someone else open it. You can never be
too careful.
The end result of my assertion that the Churchill races were tough to win
this meet was nine straight days without the Pick 6 being hit. It was then hit once
and nobody picked six over the last five days of the meet. So 14 of the last 15 days of racing
saw the Pick 6 not hit despite many juicy carryovers that attracted many more bettors.
When top handicappers like Jill Byrne and Steve Fugitte are only able to win 22
and 16 percent, respectively, you know how hard the races are.