PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING
DECEMBER 8, 2005
Triple Crown Dilemma
by Tim Holland
The sad, but not totally unexpected, news arrived last week that 2005
Preakness (G1) and Belmont S. (G1) winner Afleet Alex had been retired from
racing. Unraced since his impressive Belmont win, Afleet Alex is but the latest
victim of the Triple Crown series, which many believe has become outdated and
unsuitable for the modern day Thoroughbred.
The president of the Breeders’ Cup, D.G. Van Clief, told the Baltimore Sun,
“Nothing is forever and at some point we all may be well-advised to take a look
at this series as to whether it can be improved.”
Radical proposals to change the current format have included making the
Triple Crown open to four-year-olds or stretching out the time frame — perhaps running the Kentucky Derby (G1)
in May, Preakness in June and Belmont in September.
With the last Triple Crown winner being Affirmed way back in 1978, horse
racing is indeed long overdue for a hero. Top horses such as Cigar and Holy Bull
have done their best to fill the void and in more recent years, Funny Cide,
Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex have all captured tremendous public interest, as
much through their individual stories as for their on-track achievements. All
three of these rode the Triple Crown trail hard only to come up one leg short,
and all suffered from the toll it took on them. The gelding Funny Cide is still
racing, but he has never recaptured the brilliance that he showed winning the
Kentucky Derby and the Preakness in a runaway. However, the premature
retirements of Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex have provided the major impetus for
more and more people calling for change.
The 1970s could be described as the “Golden Years” for the Triple Crown. Not
only did Affirmed, Seattle Slew and Secretariat sweep, they were able to
continue their greatness after the series. Add to that trio 1979 Kentucky Derby
and Preakness winner Spectacular Bid, and the 1980s had a lot to live up to.
While no Triple Crown winners emerged in the 80s, many horses tackled all
three legs and were able to withstand the rigors and thrive afterward. Sunday
Silence and Easy Goer continued their rivalry through the Breeders Cup in
1989, and dual classic winner Alysheba came within a nose of winning the 1987
Classic (G1), falling short to 1986 Kentucky Derby winner Ferdinand, before
returning at four to earn Horse of the Year honors.
The next decade started out well enough with Unbridled taking the Derby and
Breeders’ Cup Classic in the same season, but it became apparent in the
following years that the wear and tear of the Triple Crown trail was taking its
toll. Grindstone, the 1993 Derby victor, never raced again, and Charismatic
(1999) broke down in the Belmont. Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners Silver
Charm (1997) and Real Quiet, (1998) were both exceptions, recording Grade 1
successes at four, but neither raced again at three following the Belmont.
This century has produced just two Derby winners so far who have managed a
Grade 1 victory after the Triple Crown series. Funny Cide took a weak Jockey
Club Gold Cup (G1) the year following his Derby win, and War Emblem won an even
poorer edition of the Haskell Invitational at odds of 0.30-1. In addition to
Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones, other promising Triple Crown contenders who have
been prematurely retired in the past six seasons include Monarchos, Point Given
and Empire Maker. The top three finishers in this year’s Derby were
done for the year after the Belmont.
While it is clear that some change needs to occur to halt this recent trend,
it pays to examine why this is happening. Why, for example, did Derby winners in
the 1960s and 70s average more than 20 lifetime starts each, while now we are
lucky if they make more than 10 appearances on the racetrack?
Many are quick to blame the breeders and a change in the economics of the
bloodstock industry. Over the last 20 years or so, many of the larger breeding
farms have changed their focus from raising race horses to race to producing
yearlings for sales. With many new players from around the world bringing in
millions of dollars, sale prices for yearlings have skyrocketed. Looking a for
quick return on their money, buyers concentrate on yearlings that should be able
to race early in their careers and be fast. Many of these yearlings are sired by
stallions that are now labeled “commercial” and are in such demand that they
breed over a hundred mares each season.
Elusive Quality (sire of Smarty Jones) and Tale of the Cat, who produced last
year’s Derby runner-up, Lion Heart, are good examples of commercial stallions.
Unfortunately, an undesirable by-product of this breeding for speed is
fragility, and it is this that can be blamed for the shortened span of many of
our top horses’ racing careers.
As many breeders change their strategies to appeal to the sales market, it
should follow that this would put the traditional breeders at an advantage. The
farms that keep their stock for racing, and still breed for soundness rather
than speed, should be able to win big races while the fragile, speed types fall
by the wayside. However, this is not the case. Two of the reasons are track surfaces and medications.
Within the last 20 years, there has been a major change in the way racetracks
manage their racing surfaces. In the mid-80s, tracks, in general, were deep,
safe and slower. But now, in order to draw the high-priced, speed-slanted
three-year-olds, track managements will accommodate them by making their
surfaces as fast as possible. Two examples that come to mind from this year’s
Triple Crown prep races are Bellamy Road’s (Concerto) wire-to-wire victory in
the Wood Memorial (G1), where he earned a 115 BRIS figure, and High Limit’s
(Maria’s Mon) front-running domination of the Louisiana Derby (G2).
On both occasions, the tracks were producing exceptionally fast final times and
speed horses were able to take full advantage. On Derby Day this year, the
Churchill Downs main track was lightening fast. Apart from the Derby, when Giacomo was able to take advantage of the false pace set by Bandini’s (Fusaichi
Pegasus) “rabbit,” no runners achieved success by coming from off the pace all
day. These fast, speed favoring tracks soon leave their mark on horses who have
to race over them time and again.
Meanwhile the issue of medication has become very prevalent over the last
couple of decades. Without a doubt, permitted raceday use of the pain killer “Bute”
(Phenylbutazone) and the anti-bleeding medication “Lasix” (Furosemide) have
contributed to the unsoundness problems that we have today. With the help of
these drugs, trainers are able to make minor problems disappear, at least for
long enough to make it through one or two races.
So what needs to be done to the Triple Crown? A short term remedy that makes
sense is to extend the time between the three legs to give the competitors a
chance to recover. However, that is not enough by itself. The breed will
continue to deteriorate, leaving more potential stars to fall by the wayside, if
we don’t address the other problems.
One possible long-term cure is already in the works. Many tracks are
considering switching to the easier, less speed-favoring Polytrack surface,
which has the potential to have a far-reaching effect on the sport. The emphasis
on speed will be negated by the new surface, and horses are expected to remain
sounder, which will extend racing careers. That could go a long way to bringing
back the more traditional type runners we used to see on the Triple Crown trail.
A second cure, but one that will take a lot longer to implement, will be the
elimination of race day medications. While it is unrealistic to expect this to
happen tomorrow, it will surely have to happen someday for the sake of the
breed.