PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING
DECEMBER 1, 2005
Pedigrees and preferences
by Tim Holland
Two recent reminders showed how important it is for turf
handicappers to pay attention to the state of the course. When the main track is
labeled “sloppy” or “muddy,” it is routine for horse players to look for horses
who are either bred to like an off track or have performed well over one in
the past. However, when there has been significant rain and the turf course has
become “soft” or “yielding,” many players are guilty of paying little or no
attention to the underfoot conditions.
The most recent reminder occurred last weekend when English-based trainer
Luca Cumani saddled Alkaased (Kingmambo) to win the Japan Cup (Jpn-G1) in world
record time over firm turf. An injury forced Alkaased to sit out France’s Prix
de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1), but he still had a chance to make the Breeders Cup
Turf (G1) at Belmont for which he had been pre-entered. However, after eyeing
the New York weather early in the week, Cumani decided that the chance of
undesirable soft ground was a good final excuse to pass and hope for firmer
ground at Tokyo. In Europe, with grass racing run every day from April through
November over ground conditions ranging from hard to heavy, trainers become
experts at working around the weather. The trainer’s shrewd handling and
knowledge of his horse’s preference was rewarded with a win in the world’s
richest turf race.
While it might seem mystifying that Alkaased would prefer firmer turf, it
starts to make sense when one looks at his pedigree. Alkaased is by Kingmambo
(Mr. Prospector), a French classic winner who stands in Kentucky. Kingmambo has
been a huge success as a stallion, so much so that his fee for 2005 was $300,000.
With nine crops racing, Kingmambo’s grass runners appear to be most
effective with dry ground.
His best female turf performer in America has been
Voodoo Dancer, whose career highlight came when winning the 2003 Diana H. (G1), beating Tates Creek (Rahy). She attempted softer underfoot conditions twice,
including her worst lifetime race when unplaced in
Keeneland’s Queen Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup (G1) as the strong favorite. Kingmambo’s leading American
male turf runner to-date is King Cugat, a $1.2 million earner whom bad luck seemed to follow
around. Favored for the 2000 Breeders Cup Mile (G1) run on firm turf at
Churchill Downs, he lost all chance through a very troubled trip. King Cugat finished second
in five Grade 1 races, with his powerful
late kick being hampered by soft ground on three occasions.
Two of Kingmambo’s best offspring are in fact well proven on soft going.
El Condor Pasa, a winner in eight of 11 starts including a
Japan Cup victory, finished second in the 1999 Arc over a very soft turf. The Japanese champion gained the lead in the stretch only to
be overhauled by the exceptional Montjeu (Ire) (Sadler’s Wells). Meanwhile, the
brilliant French filly Divine Proportions won nine of her 10 races, including
five Group 1s on courses rated soft or good. While this may seem to negate the
theory that Kingmambo’s produce need firm ground, it must be strongly noted that
both of these superior runners are out of mares by Sadler’s Wells, a huge soft
ground influence.
The other reminder to pay attention to pedigrees on off courses was prompted this fall
by Shakespeare (Theatrical [Ire]), who brought his unbeaten record to the Breeder’s Cup Turf
(G1). The major question he faced was whether he could be effective over the
rain sodden turf to compete with the likes of Bago (Fr) (Nashwan), Azamour (Ire)
(Night Shift), Ace (Ire) (Danehill) and Shirocco (Ger) (Monsun), who were all
proven on soft courses.
Unfortunately for Shakespeare’s supporters, who dispatched him as the 3.90-1 second
choice, the answer was no.
Shakespeare never looked at ease during the race and managed to only beat one horse home in an extremely disappointing performance.
Pedigree handicappers could have made a good case to stay away from him since
Theatrical (Nureyev) has already established himself as a poor soft ground
producer.
Many may remember his daughter Astra finishing unplaced at 3-5 odds in the 2001 Beverley D.
S. (G1) over a course labeled yielding. Coming off an
easy victory in the Beverley Hills H. (G1), she looked to have this race at her
mercy and on her way to an Eclipse Award. In the fall of 1998, another
daughter, Auntie Mame, also had her Eclipse hopes quashed by soft underfoot
conditions when unplaced in the Matriarch S. (G1) at Hollywood Park. Duda, Startac
and Vaudeville are other offspring by Theatrical who turned in uncharacteristically
bad performances on soft ground.
Interestingly, Nureyev (Northern Dancer), the sire of Theatrical, is also the
broodmare sire of Kingmambo, suggesting that he may be the “culprit” in this
aversion to wet conditions. Deeper investigation of Nureyev’s own offspring
reveals more turf success on the harder, firmer West Coast courses than on the East
Coast. Indeed, Stately Don, Alwuhush, Spinning World, Miesque, Annoconnor and
Theatrical are all sons or daughters of Nureyev who recorded Grade 1 grass victories in California. Of these six,
only the two most outstanding, Miesque and Theatrical, won at the top level in
the East. Furthermore, Nureyev’s influence in Californian turf racing was seen
this year through Grade 1 performances by his grandsons Castledale (Ire) (Peintre
Celebre) and King of Happiness (Spinning World), as well as by the success of
prominent turf sire Unusual Heat (Nureyev).
The number one example of a sire whose progeny enjoy some “give in the
ground” is the world’s leading turf sire Sadler’s Wells. Mentioned above as the
broodmare sire of El Condor Pasa and Divine Proportions, his biggest American
success this year came when his son Powerscourt (GB) took the Arlington Million
(G1). This was another example where pedigree handicappers had an advantage.
Dispatched at over 5-1, Powerscourt was something of an overlay when one
considered he easily “won” the 2004 edition on firm footing only to
disqualified. Although he faced slightly better this year, that factor was
canceled out by the fact that rain made this year’s ground much more to his
liking. Other performers by Sadlers Wells with North American Grade 1 victories over soft
ground to their credit include Northern Spur (Ire), Beat Hollow (GB), Ballingarry
(Ire),
High Chaparral (Ire), In the Wings (GB) and Barathea (Ire).
Sadler’s Wells has also made his mark as a sire of sires. His son El Prado
(Ire)
produced 2004 champion turf horse Kitten’s Joy, whose victories included the Joe
Hirsch Turf
Classic (G1) over a turf course labeled yielding. El Prado is also the sire this
year’s Breeders Cup Mile winner, Artie Schiller, who took advantage of the softish turf to record his first Grade 1 win. Another son of Sadler’s Wells is
King’s Theatre (Ire), who sired the wire-to-wire winner of this years Sword Dancer
Invitational S. (G1)
over a turf rated good.
While the overall lesson here is to be wary of runners coming from sire lines
that might not be suited to today’s surface, one most remember to use this as a
guide, rather than a rule, because there are always exceptions. For example, Theatrical himself won the Turf Classic at Belmont over a course rated soft
through sheer class. On the same course with similar conditions, his daughter
Dahlia’s Dreamer took the 1994 Flower Bowl (G1) by 13 lengths after being
allowed an uncontested lead. Likewise, offspring of Sadler’s Wells have been able to
overcome firm surfaces, with both High Chaparral and Islington (Ire) asserting their
authority with Breeders Cup wins over firm California courses.