DICK POWELL’S
MELBOURNE CUP BLOG
Cup Selections & Raceday Updates
After reading everything I can get my hands on, watching every show on the
Melbourne Cup (G1) and talking to some of the participants Monday
evening at a dinner, it’s time to make up my mind and decide who I am going to
back in the 149th running of the race that stops a nation.
Every horse that I think has a legitimate shot to get the two-mile distance
on Tuesday has a flaw.
VIEWED (Scenic [Ire]) will be the betting favorite, has to carry highweight
and his odds will be further compromised by the betting public blindly betting
trainer Bart Cummings looking for his 13th win in the Cup. C’EST LA GUERRE
(Shinko King) seems to want more give in the ground and has to tote the second
highest weight. MASTER O’REILLY (O’Reilly) will get the ground that he likes but
seems to hang in the stretch. MOURILYAN (Ire) (Desert Prince [Ire]) hasn’t run
since the end of August.
ROMAN EMPEROR (Montjeu [Ire]) is a question mark at the distance and doesn’t
seem to have enough racing miles to be ready, CRIME SCENE (Royal Applause [GB])
has a suspect pedigree, as does MUNSEF (Zafonic). ALCOPOP (Jeune) has
connections that are unproven on this stage, WARRINGAH (Galileo [Ire]) will try
to go gate-to-wire with his one-dimensional running style, BASALTICO (Shantou)
did not show enough in his prep and will be overbet as Luca Cumani tries to make
up for his two second-place finishes in the Cup the past two years, DAFFODIL (No
Excuse Needed [GB]) has to overcome post 21, SHOCKING (Street Cry [Ire]) has to
overcome post 22 and ALLEZ WONDER (Redoute’s Choice) does not get the weight
break that many of these receive today.
I know it can be folly by going with the most recent attention-getting
performance but I like SHOCKING’S chances to win the Cup for Mark Kavanagh and
Corey Brown. His win in Saturday’s Lexus S. (G3) was terrific as he came from
way back and passed eight horses in the last furlong while down on the inside.
He ran well against second choice Alcopop last month at shorter distances and I
love his pedigree for ground that should be “Good-3.”
He will have to overcome post 22 but with his running style Corey Brown will
take him back anyway and hopefully he can get over to the rail and save some
ground. He’ll need some luck racing behind a big field but he showed Saturday
that he can accelerate quickly when asked, so I expect that he can make his own
luck. At 112 pounds, he’ll be around 10-1 odds; not exactly what I want but
being in form makes him worth the choice.
Every time I look at the Cup’s form I keep coming back to Mourilyan, and if
he had any kind of prep race I would put him on top. A true stayer, I remember
how good he was in Dubai going long when he was owned and raced by the Aga Khan.
Herman Brown is a top international trainer, he gets a ton of weight off and his
second behind Schiaparelli (Monsun) three starts back was as good as any of
these have run at the distance. He draws well and the faster the pace the
better.
VIEWED is hard to ignore but at the price I have to play against him. His
prep in the Mackinnon was excellent but at the highweight of the field I have to
go against him. Bart could win his 13th Cup with any of his three entrants and
they all figure to take significant money.
DAFFODIL should be able to overcome the fact that she is only four years old
since she has already started 21 times. She has to overcome post 21 but this
hard-knocking mare from New Zealand is taking lots of smart money.
Our betting strategy will be a win bet on #21 SHOCKING and a five-horse
trifecta box with #21 SHOCKING, #5 MOURILYAN, #1 VIEWED, #20 DAFFODIL and #4
MASTER O’REILLY. In the North American pool, it looks like there is a
pari-mutuel field from #20 on up so you’ll get #21 and #20. Add #13 KIBBUTZ
(Golan [Ire]) as a longshot to get into the money.
There is a chance of showers on Cup day but it doesn’t appear to be severe
enough to change the ground. The pace might be strong as there are a few in here
that will be forwardly placed, so that might ease some of the expected
congestion. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (Montjeu [Ire]) will have to pass a vet’s exam in
order to race in the afternoon. It will be a long day of wagering but I’ve spent
a lot of time handicapping the rest of the card and will probably take a shot at
the pick 4 also known as the quaddie that begins with the Cup as the first leg.
Good luck.
***
Raceday Updates: The stewards of the Victoria Racing Club have ordered #23
CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (Montjeu [Ire]) scratched from today’s Melbourne Cup due to
lameness. Trainer David Hayes vehemently disagreed and said that they should
scratch every horse in his stable if that is the standard.
The track super, also known as the Clerk of the Course, said that the ground
today will be listed as “dead-5” with some rain overnight giving some give. The
rain seems to be over and with very windy conditions for the rest of the day, it
should firm up to “dead-4” later on.