Turnback the Alarm

TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS

Grade 1 veteran UNBRIDLED BELLE (Broken Vow) makes the penultimate start of
her career in Saturday’s $100,000 Turnback the Alarm H. (G3) at Aqueduct, and
the six-year-old will be an overwhelming favorite based on past glories, not to
mention a decent second to Music Note (A.P. Indy) in the Beldame S. (G1) last
time. However, we think the chalk has shown enough signs of weakness over the
past two seasons to side elsewhere, though making a plausible case for someone
else is difficult.

We’ve settled on WEATHERED (Key Contender), who has a 3-2-1-0 mark on the Big
A’s main track and cleaned up over the inner dirt last winter with victories in
the Next Move H. (G3) and Rare Treat H. Her form since August has not been
stellar, but she was in over her head last time against males, beat New
York-bred fillies and mares in a stakes two back, and forced Unbridled Belle to
make a swift retreat while setting the pace in the Personal Ensign S. (G1) three
back. We love the fact she has won nine of her last 20.

Unbridled Belle is logical in so many respects, but this is not the same
filly that was in the hunt for a year-end championship two years ago following
scores in the Beldame and Delaware H. (G2). Indeed, she’s won back-to-back
editions of the Obeah S. (G3) but nothing else since her breakout 2007 campaign.
We’ll just take a stand against, and if she beats us we’ll give it another try
in the November 26 Falls City H. (G2) at Churchill Downs.

WAY WITH WORDS (Sefapiano) enters with three wins in her last five, and was a
decent fourth in the Violet S. (G3) last out despite not being much of a world
beater on turf. The New Jersey-bred simply looks like the third best horse in
the field on back class and current form.

MANITOBA MISS (D’wildcat) will try and match the speed of the top pair, but
we’re not convinced the underlying class is there for her to turn back both of
the top choices. DATTS OUR GIRL (Thunder Gulch) ran okay on off-tracks two and
three back, but is generally better on turf. NICKSAPPEALINGLADY (Successful
Appeal) has been idle since June and has never gone this far before. DEAN HENRY
(Empire Maker) was beaten 13 1/2 lengths by Weathered last time. Enough said.