BREEDERS’ CUP FEATURE
OCTOBER 31, 2013
Breeders’ Cup Saturday
by John Mucciolo
With the Breeders’ Cup nearly upon us, we will focus on some potential price
horses that could run big at Santa Anita this Saturday. It has to be noted that
these are not all intended as solely win plays, but also as potentially
long-priced exotics contenders that could help balloon the gimmicks. We tabbed a
pair last year with Mizdirection (Turf Sprint) and Little Mike (Turf), and will
hope to improve on that in 2013.
Classic
It all starts with the big one and Flat Out looks like a play this
year as he flies way under the radar for conditioner Bill Mott. Sent off at a
well-regarded 6-1 last season in this race, the son of Flatter had a severe bias
to rally into but still managed third in what we thought was a sneaky-good
performance that proved he can handle this race track. The bay has not been as
sharp in 2013 as he was in the latter part of 2012, but he’s been no slouch
either, winning a pair of graded races with a trio of Grade 1 placings. Third
last out behind a runaway winner in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, this hard-trying
grinder could peak third off the layoff and should get a hearty pace to run into
turning for home. Expect a fine price on the Florida-bred.
We’ve thought since the summer that Palace Malice was the top
sophomore in the land and we are kind of happy he got dusted in his final prep
for this, when the colt was likely not fully cranked up, thus giving us a better
price for the Classic. Trained by Todd Pletcher, this son of Curlin has posted
formidable BRIS Speed figures of 105, 108 and 105 in his last trio of races in
proving his class, and while he often likes to be close up early, we can see
pilot John Velazquez taking back and running down a speed duel in the stretch.
The bay colt might be an overlay off of his latest showing, when a distant
second in the Gold Cup at Belmont Park.
Turf
Much of the attention will go to The Fugue in this race, and rightfully so as
the high-class Euro invader is from an expert barn and comes in with a pair of
smashing Group 1 tallies. But defending champ Little Mike might be the
lone speed in this grassy marathon again and will take some beating if allowed
to set his own fractions for trainer Dale Romans. The gelded son of Spanish
Steps showed a new dimension in rating early before putting in his winning run
in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont last time, and also proved to be very
courageous in fighting off a pair of stern tests in the stretch. We might not
get the 17-1 odds like last season, but the price should be near double-digits
in 2013.
It’s hard to tab Point of Entry as a sleeper in any race, but we have
a hunch that the Shug McGaughey trainee might be a bit overlooked in this field
having been unraced since June. The exquisite son of Dynaformer was a fine
runner-up in this tough test a year ago and has done nothing wrong in two starts
since, bagging both, while showing the versatility to be placed anywhere he
needs to in the early going. The bay has been first or second in eight straight
and might even benefit from having a lighter campaign in leading up to this test
for a very good layoff conditioner. If we see 5-1 or more, the rubber band might
come off of the money roll.
Mile
While No Jet Lag was a surprise to many in bagging the City of Hope on
this turf last time, he wasn’t to conditioner to Simon Callaghan, who has said
he was one of the top two horses he’s had since moving his tack to Southern
California a few years back. The peaking sophomore made a giant leap from
first-level allowance runners to the graded ranks with relative ease, and he
lands in another spot which is likely to produce a very fast early pace to
set-up his late turn of foot. We can’t say this son of Johar boasts the
credentials of most of this field, but he’s a “now” horse who thrives on this
oval, and the three-year-old will be making his third start since coming
stateside. We have a bit of trepidation, however, after learning that he was
very headstrong in a breeze here over the weekend.
Sprint
Fast Bullet is among the swifter horses in training and could be
sitting on a huge one in his second outing for conditioner D. Wayne Lukas, who
has had a remarkable resurgence in 2013. The lightly-raced five-year-old
finished a solid sixth in this race in 2012 off of a year layoff, and he has
more fitness this campaign that could serve him a lot better at a potentially
huge price. The son of Speightstown didn’t handle the slop last time at Belmont
Park in the Vosburgh, but figures to be fully cranked for this on a likely fast
oval for a master conditioner who knows how to get one ready for a big race. The
Kentucky-bred has also proven to win from behind horses, which might come in
handy in this wide-open test, especially if he gets a draw well off the rail.
Juvenile
Horses that win the Hopeful by more than nine lengths rarely get overlooked,
but that is exactly what is happening with the Lukas-trained Strong Mandate
in this field. The precocious son of Tiznow has proven to be able to break fast
from the gate and power home, as well, and we’ll give him a pass for his
one-paced run in the Champagne last time, as he should offer a ton of value in
this mostly wide-open field. His :59 five-furlong drill at Santa Anita on
Saturday certainly didn’t hurt his chances.
The Patrick Biancone-trained Diamond Bachelor has been a major player
since his debut run when dominating foes in a one-mile turf run at Del Mar, and
the $570,000 two-year-old purchase could be a real danger at a price in making
his dirt debut. The son of War Front has natural speed, seems to have a motor
that can carry him this far at least, and he has not been abused in his training
nor his races leading up to this, hinting that he could pop his best at a price.
The dark bay colt has been training on this dirt oval for more than a month and
we would not waver in making a wager on this Kentucky-bred.
Juvenile Fillies
Frizette vixen Artemis Agrotera was very fast in a dominant debut
score and then showed professionalism in winning at the Grade 1 level in just
her second lifetime race, rating off a slow pace and coming home very fast for
conditioner Michael Hushion. The bay filly by Roman Ruler is bred to run longer
being out of an A.P. Indy mare and has been handy in each of her two lifetime
runs to date, with more possibly on the way following a rapid half-mile bullet
drill at Belmont. The February foal drew the rail, the same starting position as
the winning Beholder last year, we expect big things from the possible
two-year-old champion filly.
Filly & Mare Sprint
Judy the Beauty was a most impressive winner over a pair of synthetic
standouts at Keeneland last time and the Wesley Ward charge could be sitting on
another big one third off the layoff. The four-year-old daughter of Ghostzapper
seemed likely to break through at the graded level after so many big efforts at
the top level of racing, and now that she achieved that goal, we think she looms
a huge chance in a field lacking early speed. The filly has been second in a
trio of Grade 1 races on dirt and lands in a field with a vulnerable favorite.
We think she will get a great trip and might notch her first ever dirt score in
in this affair.
Filly & Mare Turf
Romantica will try to emulate her dam, Banks Hill, who won this race
in resounding fashion in 2001 for sensational French conditioner Andre Fabre.
The Juddmonte homebred is a class act who is a Group 1 heroine and
three-for-four at this distance, and she flies under the radar of her fellow
Euro counterpart, Dank. We honestly don’t know a whole lot about this daughter
of standout European sire Galileo other than that she has a sterling pedigree,
is proven at the Group 1 level and that the lass hails from legendary
connections. That is good enough for us.