Breeders’ Cup 2013 Friday Previews

BREEDERS’ CUP FRIDAY
PREVIEWS

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF (G1),
10TH-SA, $2,000,000, 3YO/UP, F/M, 1 1/8M, 7:35PM, 11-1

Forget the Classic. Friday’s Distaff is the high point of this year’s
Breeders’ Cup in this writer’s humble opinion.

Only six will line up in the nine-furlong affair but they represent the best
in their division. Two are returning Breeders’ Cup winners as well as Eclipse
Award honorees, while four of the six have multiple Grade 1 scores on their
resumes.

There are multiple story lines in the Distaff as well. The Classic will more
than likely determine Horse of the Year, but the Distaff features a mare trying
for an historic three-peat in the race, the year’s top three sophomore fillies
battling it out for championship honors, and more than one looking to avenge a
past loss to another rival in the field.

With all that said, this is one of the more difficult races to handicap but I
just can’t go against ROYAL DELTA.

1ST — Despite her loss to leading three-year-old filly Princess of Sylmar in
the Beldame Invitational last out, Royal Delta enters Friday’s Distaff
owning the same exact record she did when going for the 2012 running of the race
(6-3-2-0).

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has kept his star pupil to the same plan as
last year. Royal Delta opened her five-year-old campaign with a five-length win
in the Sabin in February, easily bettering her runner-up effort in the race
12 months prior. Despite her lackluster performance in the 2012 Dubai World Cup, her connections decided to try her again over the Tapeta surface at
Meydan that she clearly and vehemently dislikes. The result was the same with
Royal Delta finishing well up the track after offering no threat.

Mott gave the dark bay mare time to recover from her journey but she still
seemed tired when going for a title defense in the Fleur de Lis H. in
mid-June. Royal Delta wound up second that day, five lengths behind the winner,
but bounced back for her next two when repeating in the Delaware H. and
improving from her second in the 2012 Personal Ensign to a 4 1/2-length
score in late August.

The Kentucky-bred then faced her toughest challenge to date against Princess
of Sylmar in the Beldame. Both Mott and jockey Mike Smith have said they felt
Royal Delta wasn’t her best heading into that 1 1/8-mile contest, and that ended
up proving true as she had the lead entering the lane but couldn’t stop her
younger rival from going on by to a two-length win.

Even then Mott was thinking about an historic three-peat in the Distaff and
has since tightened the screws on his charge. Royal Delta has been burning up
the track at Belmont Park, posting a pair of half-mile bullets in :46 2/5 and a
five-eighths bullet in :59 3/5. Those are even better than her pre-2012 Distaff
workouts, and Royal Delta looks to be firing on all cylinders as she heads into
what could be the final start of her championship career.

2ND — One of those story lines in the Distaff is the three-year-old filly
championship. Princess of Sylmar appears to have it all wrapped up but BEHOLDER
would make a case for herself with a win in the race, which is entirely possible
especially considering the Richard Mandella filly is running out of her own
stall.

Santa Anita has been Beholder’s homebase since she recorded her first
workout. The Henny Hughes miss has racked up a 5-1-0 mark from six starts there,
with her only loss coming in the Santa Ynez in her 2012 opener. It was
revealed soon after that loss that the bay lass was suffering from a throat
ulcer and she was given time to recover from the ailment.

Since then Beholder has suffered just one loss — but it was a big one when
passed by Princess of Sylmar in the Kentucky Oaks on May 3. Prior to the
Churchill Downs contest Beholder had scored easy wins in the Las Virgenes and Santa Anita Oaks, and following the Kentucky Oaks she was given a break
over the summer as Mandella was already beginning preparations for the Distaff.

Beholder returned to action in the September 1 Torrey Pines at Del Mar,
wiring the field by 2 3/4 lengths, before posting a 1 1/4-length front-running
score in the Zenyatta, Santa Anita’s local prep for the Distaff.

Beholder is no stranger to the madness that surrounds Breeders’ Cup, either.
The bay Kentucky-bred earned an Eclipse Award as champion two-year-old filly
after running away with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies 12 months ago, and a
repeat of that effort could easily see her wearing the purple blanket once
again.

3RD — Many think Royal Delta has already passed the leading distaffer torch
to PRINCESS OF SYLMAR, and that may very well be true.

The filly brings a 7-6-1-0 mark into the Distaff, suffering her only loss
when second in the Gazelle at Aqueduct one month prior to her Kentucky Oaks
triumph. She has since dominated her fellow three-year-old fillies with easy
wins in the Coaching Club American Oaks and Alabama.

Owner Ed Stanco and trainer Todd Pletcher then had a decision to make: keep
her running in the sophomore ranks and enter the Cotillion or take on
elders in the Beldame. The decision was made and Princess of Sylmar was thought
to have wrapped up
Eclipse Award honors by defeating Royal Delta.

The chestnut daughter of Majestic Warrior wasn’t Breeders’ Cup nominated and
Pletcher had already indicated she would bypass the Distaff and receive a break
after her Beldame win.

It looked like a rematch between Princess of Sylmar and her two main rivals,
Royal Delta and Beholder, would not happen. However, Stanco decided to put it
all on the line for the sake of the fans and paid the supplemental fee to enter
Princess of Sylmar in the Distaff. That could prove costly if Beholder ends up
winning, as some would then be stamping for her to be named champion
three-year-old filly.

Nothing would be more thrilling than to see Royal Delta, Beholder and
Princess of Sylmar hook up in the Santa Anita stretch to battle it out for both
the win and title as top female. If an upset happens in the Classic and Mile,
which features returning champion and reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan, it’s
feasible the HOY crown could also pass to one of these exceptional fillies.

OTHERS — While all the focus will be on the top trio, it should be noted
both AUTHENTICITY and CLOSE HATCHES will be looking to turn the tables on their
rivals.

The former, who is also trained by Pletcher, finished second to Royal Delta
in the Personal Ensign and filled that same spot behind Beholder in the Zenyatta
last out. Authenticity made her stakes debut in the Rampart in March and
has stuck to the graded ranks for her five runs since then. She’s yet to finish
worse than second in that time, including a pair of wins in the La Troienne
and Shuvee H.

Close Hatches holds the distinction of being the only one to defeat Princess
of Sylmar this year. The Mott trainee broke her maiden at Gulfstream Park in
January, took an optional claimer at that track in March, then shipped to
Aqueduct for a front-running win in the Gazelle. That may have taken something
out of the First Defence filly as she never factored when seventh in the
Kentucky Oaks next out. She probably also found the one-mile distance of the
Acorn too short when second following the Oaks, but has romped in her past
two in the Mother Goose and Cotillion.

STREET GIRL is the question mark in the race, having run third in the
Cotillion after a very close fourth sprinting in the Ballerina. The bay
miss doesn’t appear on the same level as everyone else, but anything can happen
on Breeders’ Cup Day.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES
TURF (G1), 9TH-SA, $1,000,000, 2YO, F, 1MT, 6:50PM, 11-1

Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf features a contentious, and very
well-matched, full field of 14 going a mile on Santa Anita’s turf. There are
three overseas challengers and two other European campaigners who have joined
the barns of American trainers ahead of Friday’s race.

One of those in the latter category is Clenor, and the Irish-bred miss holds
the distinction of taking Santa Anita’s local prep for the Juvenile Fillies Turf
over course and distance. Despite that, we think a 12-1 morning-line shot has a
very good chance of continuing her owners’ recent remarkable run.

1ST — KITTEN KABOODLE is bred and owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, who have
been taking down records left, right and center this year.

The Ramseys were leading owners at Saratoga’s meet, scored a record nine wins
for the Kentucky Downs title and broke a Keeneland fall meet record that had
stood since 1968 (and they had tied in 2012) when earning 17 victories at that
Lexington, Kentucky, track’s recent stand. The husband and wife team also
captured the 2011 edition of the Juvenile Fillies Turf with Stephanie’s Kitten,
who in three starts this year has won the Just a Game and Distaff Turf Mile
as well as run a close third in the Diana.

That being said, Kitten Kaboodle earned the right to be the 2013 top choice
by her own merits. The chestnut daughter of Kitten’s Joy began her career with
Wayne Catalano at Saratoga but was unable to help her owners take the title at
that New York venue when runner-up in both her starts there going 1 1/16 miles.

Subsequently transferred to trainer Chad Brown’s shedrow, Kitten Kaboodle
broke her maiden in spectacular fashion at Keeneland when running away for a 4
3/4-length victory in the Jessamine. She shipped back to Brown’s barn at
Belmont Park and has consistently posted competitive half-mile moves in
readiness for Friday’s race.

Kitten Kaboodle will have the services of jockey John Velazquez for the first
time in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, which can only help her chances even more.

2ND — While tabbing Kitten Kaboodle, it must be noted CLENOR will be very
tough to beat and that’s why she’s the second choice here. The bay miss actually
has been unbeatable since coming stateside and all in California.

Clenor never showed much in Ireland, running fifth and fourth in a pair of
maiden contests before filling the third spot in a Group 3 contest in late June.
Just over a month later the Oratorio filly was running away with her initial win
by 2 1/2 lengths going a mile on Del Mar’s turf, and followed up with a 3
1/4-length victory in the Oak Tree Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Instead of shipping his charge cross country for graded credit, trainer Doug
O’Neill kept his eye on the Breeders’ Cup prize and saddled Clenor to a game
three-quarter length triumph in the Surfer Girl, Santa Anita’s prep for Friday’s
contest.

Clenor has recorded just two works since then, but made them count when
blazing a half-mile in :47 1/5 on October 18 and speeding four furlongs last
Friday in :48 2/5, both on Santa Anita’s green. Local leading rider Rafael
Bejarano has been in the saddle for all of the filly’s U.S. starts and retains
the mount for the Breeders’ Cup.

3RD — Like Clenor, TESTA ROSSI crossed the pond early, though she took up
residence in Brown’s barn at Belmont. The French-bred brought with her a
three-race win streak that was stretched to four entering the Juvenile Fillies
Turf thanks to victory in the Miss Grillo on October 6.

Testa Rossi was last of 11 in that 8 1/2-furlong affair, but found herself in
front with a length to spare in the stretch. The chestnut daughter of Dr Fong
had to battle for the victory with SKY PAINTER, just holding that rival by a
nose on the wire.

Testa Rossi proved herself over a firm course in the Miss Grillo, warranting
a place among our picks, but will need to keep to task if she hopes to win on
Friday. Jockey Jose Lezcano said after the Miss Grillo that Testa Rossi began
pulling up a bit once hitting the front until Sky Painter came at her, something
that could prove costly this time around.

OTHERS — MY CONQUESTADORY brings a perfect two-for-two mark into the
Juvenile Fillies Turf, and could very well extend that to an unbeaten three
straight. The Mark Casse pupil took her maiden debut against the boys in the
Summer going a mile on Woodbine’s turf in mid-September, then returned
three weeks later to add the Alcibiades to her resume while running on Keeneland’s Polytrack. The Artie Schiller filly appears the one to beat but
likely won’t offer much value, especially from the disadvantageous post 14, which is why she’s not in our top three.

AL THAKHIRA is one of the three international runners and boasts an unbeaten
two-for-two mark, including victory in an English Group 2. The Dubawi filly
would have made the top three if not for the fact both of those wins came over
soft going and Santa Anita’s turf is hardly ever anything but ultra firm. Fellow Europeans and Group 1 winners VORDA and
CHRISELLIAM will also be trying new circumstances and could find it too much to overcome.

NESSO and COLONEL JOAN were second and third, respectively, behind Clenor in
the Surfer Girl, and are the only ones beside her with prior experience over
Santa Anita’s turf. That could come in handy as the pair seek to avenge their
loss on Friday.

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE (G1),
8TH-SA, $1,000,000, 3YO/UP, 1M, 6:05PM, 11-1

The Dirt Mile is the lone Breeders’ Cup race at Santa Anita that doesn’t
allows 14 runners, restricting the field to 12 due to the extremely short
distance to the first turn, and the top two choices on the morning line,
Verrazano and Goldencents, drew poorly in posts 10 and 12, respectively. With
both horses preferring to race up close, we’re anticipating a wide trip for both
and will go in a different direction.

1ST — GOLDEN TICKET shipped out to Santa Anita and finished fourth behind
Mucho Macho Man and Paynter in the 1 1/8-mile Awesome Again on September 28,
netting a solid 104 BRIS Speed rating for the effort. We believe that race will
benefit him and love the cutback in distance — five of the six previous Dirt
Mile winners were cutting back in trip, four off of losses. A Grade 1 winner
last year at three, Golden Ticket has captured three of seven outings this year,
netting a career-best 108 Speed rating for a sharp win over listed stakes rivals
two back, and his Speed numbers are on par with the top contenders in the field.
The Ken McPeek-trained colt drew well in post 2 with his tactical speed and
receives a positive rider switch to Joel Rosario. We’re envisioning a good trip
for Golden Ticket and believe he can prove best at a price (12-1 morning line).

2ND — BRUJO DE OLLEROS is the best former Uruguay-based horse since Invasor.
He showed little when making his first two U.S. starts last year, but the
five-year-old has really come on this season for trainer Richard Mettee,
recording a pair of narrow runner-up finishes and an impressive stakes victory
two starts back. The chestnut was at a disadvantage last time in the Kelso Handicap, with quality rival Graydar the lone speed in the seven-horse
field, but we were impressed with Brujo de Olleros’ late run for second, beaten
only three parts of a length. He netted a 101 Speed and 107 Late Pace ratings
for that effort and the Dirt Mile figures to set up much better for the stalker,
with a hot pace expected. We’ll look for a strong showing from the in-form
runner.

3RD — VERRAZANO is six for eight overall, with both setbacks coming at 10
furlongs, and the one-mile distance is a perfect fit for the Todd Pletcher-trained
colt. We give him credit for an impressive 9 3/4-length victory two starts back,
netting a 111 Speed figure, but Verrazano was able to dominate on the front end
once Oxbow stopped approaching the far turn. And the rest of his Speed numbers
are far from overwhelming. The three-year-old colt danced a lot of dances
earlier in the season, making four starts prior to the Kentucky Derby, and
hasn’t raced since finishing up the track in the August 24 Travers. We won’t be
surprised to see Verrazano win, but the outside post could adversely affect his
chances and he looks vulnerable in our estimation at a short price.

Others: GOLDENCENTS has the talent to prevail and will be included underneath
in our exotics, but the outside post is very unattractive. He hasn’t proven
effective rating several lengths off the pace and could lose plenty of ground on
the first turn. We’ll have to let the Santa Anita Derby winner beat us. FED BIZ
exits a nice score in the Pat O’Brien, his first win since January, and
owns a three for five record at the distance. But the four-year-old colt will be
stepping up to face steeper competition and performed poorly at short odds in
this race last year. Fed Biz deserves serious consideration for the top three,
but he could get bet down from his 6-1 morning line price and we don’t have much
faith in his win chances. HYMN BOOK will look to make a late impact. The Shug
McGaughey trainee has never won from three starts at a mile, but he brings
commendable Speed and Late Pace numbers into the race and rates as a sleeper for
the bottom of the exotics at long odds (15-1 morning line).

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF
(G1), 7TH-SA, $1,000,000, 2YO, C/G, 1MT, 5:25PM, 11-1

European shippers have captured four of the last five runnings of the
Juvenile Turf, including all three editions at Santa Anita, and several
dangerous contestants from overseas were entered in this year’s 13-horse field.
But we’ll side with the home team, tabbing the extremely promising Bobby’s
Kitten for top honors.

1ST — BOBBY’S KITTEN posted a sharp maiden score at Saratoga in his second
start and continued to improve when making his stakes debut in the October 6
Pilgrim at Belmont Park, running away from the competition for an impressive 6
1/4-length victory. Trainer Chad Brown excels with turf horses and we expect to
see Bobby’s Kitten continue to move forward in this spot. The talented colt
netted an encouraging 97 BRIS Speed rating last time, posting century-topping
Pace numbers as well, and we love the turn of foot we’ve seen from the colt in
all three outings. Bobby’s Kitten possesses some tactical speed, which should
come in handy in the bulky field, and we’ll look for him to prove best from just
off the pace with Javier Castellano.

2ND — OUTSTRIP posted a nice win in the Champagne at Doncaster
(England) two back and exits a respectable third to War Command (perhaps the
best two-year-old in Europe) in the Dewhurst at Newmarket. A son of
Exceed and Excel, the Godolphin colorbearer is out of U.S. Grade 1 winner Asi
Siempre and has never run a bad race in four career starts. Outstrip is a threat
with his best.

3RD – GIOVANNI BOLDINI is not the best two-year-old in Aidan O’Brien’s barn
but still looks very talented. Third in the Vincent O’Brien at The Curragh two back, the son of War Front earned his first stakes victory with a
romping performance on Polytrack last out, scoring by nearly five lengths, and
is a candidate for further improvement at Santa Anita off of that confidence
builder. We have plenty of respect and won’t be surprised to see him heavily
supported in the wagering, but Giovanni Boldini drew down near the rail in post
2 and must find a way to negotiate a good trip from off the pace.

Others: The following horses are all listed at double-digit odds on the
morning line and offer some appeal for the bottom of the exotics. POKER PLAYER
exits a rallying victory in the off-the-turf Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland. A turf
maiden winner two starts back, the Wayne Catalano charge appears to be training
forwardly in preparation and could make serious headway in the final furlongs.
SHAMSHON recorded a nice stakes win in France two back and did not run poorly
when fifth in a Group 2 event at Newbury (England) last out. He figures to be
overlooked and must overcome post 12, but we’re encouraged by his form and give
him a chance to grab part. ONTOLOGY is still a maiden, but he ran well when
making his lone turf appearance two starts back, finishing second in the Oak
Tree Juvenile Turf at Del Mar, and could be in position to make a minor impact
if he gets the expected trip, rating just behind the early speed.

BREEDERS’ CUP MARATHON (G2),
6TH-SA, $500,000, 3YO/UP, 1 3/4M, 4:45PM, 11-1

The Marathon kicks off the 14-race, two-day Breeders’ Cup program with a
well-matched field of 10 at 1 3/4 miles. Last year’s Marathon featured a
surprisingly quick pace, with an opening half-mile in :47 4/5, and that set the
table for the now-retired Calidoscopio, who rallied from to win going away by
nearly five lengths. We’re expecting a different situation this year, with tepid
early fractions, and like Commander’s chances on the front end.

1ST — COMMANDER was bet down to 6-1 in last year’s 13-horse field but could
not make the lead after breaking from post 11, weakening to ninth after chasing
the early leaders. The five-year-old gelding drew post 3 this time around and
will take the field as far as he can with Aaron Gryder. Conditioned by Troy
Taylor, the five-year-old gelding is enjoying a career-best season in 2013,
winning four of his last five starts, and he’s earned BRIS Speed ratings of 104,
105 and 106 this year. He won’t face the stiffest competition (last year’s
Marathon field was much deeper) and should be cruising along at a moderate
tempo. And the 18-furlong distance isn’t a serious concern for the son of Broken
Vow. Commander can lead all the way.

2ND — SUNS OUT GUNS OUT exits a nice optional claiming win at Parx Racing
and fits well at this level. The four-year-old son of Empire Maker appears to be
thriving for trainer Dale Romans, recording a couple of nice works since the
confidence-building win last time, and can sit close to the pacesetter with his
tactical speed. Julien Leparoux retains the mount on the improving colt and Suns
Out Guns Out appears capable of running well from just off the pace.

3RD — OLD TIME HOCKEY will be able to save ground from his inside post and
should appreciate the class relief after recording a pair of fourths in his last
two starts against graded rivals. The four-year-old will need to transfer his
form from turf to dirt, making 14 of his 17 career starts on the sod, but he has
placed in two dirt attempts and is in good hands with trainer Tom Proctor. We
give Old Time Hockey a good chance to make an impact.

Others: EVER RIDER ships in from Argentina and receives a positive rider
switch to Gary Stevens. However, his South American form pales in comparison to
Calidoscopio and we have quality concerns with the five-year-old. Ever Rider has
won two of his three starts, though, and we won’t be surprised to see him grab a
small share from off the pace. LONDON BRIDGE loves a route of ground and
receives first-time Lasix, but dirt is the big question mark for the European
shipper. He is by Arch, which bodes well for his chances, and has the services
of Mike Smith. We can’t completely dismiss his chances.