Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

BREEDERS’ CUP FRIDAY
PREVIEWS

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE (G1),
8TH-SA, $1,000,000, 3YO/UP, 1M, 6:05PM, 11-1

The Dirt Mile is the lone Breeders’ Cup race at Santa Anita that doesn’t
allows 14 runners, restricting the field to 12 due to the extremely short
distance to the first turn, and the top two choices on the morning line,
Verrazano and Goldencents, drew poorly in posts 10 and 12, respectively. With
both horses preferring to race up close, we’re anticipating a wide trip for both
and will go in a different direction.

1ST — GOLDEN TICKET shipped out to Santa Anita and finished fourth behind
Mucho Macho Man and Paynter in the 1 1/8-mile Awesome Again on September 28,
netting a solid 104 BRIS Speed rating for the effort. We believe that race will
benefit him and love the cutback in distance — five of the six previous Dirt
Mile winners were cutting back in trip, four off of losses. A Grade 1 winner
last year at three, Golden Ticket has captured three of seven outings this year,
netting a career-best 108 Speed rating for a sharp win over listed stakes rivals
two back, and his Speed numbers are on par with the top contenders in the field.
The Ken McPeek-trained colt drew well in post 2 with his tactical speed and
receives a positive rider switch to Joel Rosario. We’re envisioning a good trip
for Golden Ticket and believe he can prove best at a price (12-1 morning line).

2ND — BRUJO DE OLLEROS is the best former Uruguay-based horse since Invasor.
He showed little when making his first two U.S. starts last year, but the
five-year-old has really come on this season for trainer Richard Mettee,
recording a pair of narrow runner-up finishes and an impressive stakes victory
two starts back. The chestnut was at a disadvantage last time in the Kelso Handicap, with quality rival Graydar the lone speed in the seven-horse
field, but we were impressed with Brujo de Olleros’ late run for second, beaten
only three parts of a length. He netted a 101 Speed and 107 Late Pace ratings
for that effort and the Dirt Mile figures to set up much better for the stalker,
with a hot pace expected. We’ll look for a strong showing from the in-form
runner.

3RD — VERRAZANO is six for eight overall, with both setbacks coming at 10
furlongs, and the one-mile distance is a perfect fit for the Todd Pletcher-trained
colt. We give him credit for an impressive 9 3/4-length victory two starts back,
netting a 111 Speed figure, but Verrazano was able to dominate on the front end
once Oxbow stopped approaching the far turn. And the rest of his Speed numbers
are far from overwhelming. The three-year-old colt danced a lot of dances
earlier in the season, making four starts prior to the Kentucky Derby, and
hasn’t raced since finishing up the track in the August 24 Travers. We won’t be
surprised to see Verrazano win, but the outside post could adversely affect his
chances and he looks vulnerable in our estimation at a short price.

Others: GOLDENCENTS has the talent to prevail and will be included underneath
in our exotics, but the outside post is very unattractive. He hasn’t proven
effective rating several lengths off the pace and could lose plenty of ground on
the first turn. We’ll have to let the Santa Anita Derby winner beat us. FED BIZ
exits a nice score in the Pat O’Brien, his first win since January, and
owns a three for five record at the distance. But the four-year-old colt will be
stepping up to face steeper competition and performed poorly at short odds in
this race last year. Fed Biz deserves serious consideration for the top three,
but he could get bet down from his 6-1 morning line price and we don’t have much
faith in his win chances. HYMN BOOK will look to make a late impact. The Shug
McGaughey trainee has never won from three starts at a mile, but he brings
commendable Speed and Late Pace numbers into the race and rates as a sleeper for
the bottom of the exotics at long odds (15-1 morning line).