August 8, 2022

How to bet the Mahoning Valley Must-Win Pick 6

As captain of the TwinSpires.com players pool for the $62,478 must-win carryover in the 20-cent Pick 6 on Wednesday, December 28, at Mahoning Valley Race Course (click for Brisnet.com handicapping reports), I’ll be looking to take my own advice and crush a sequence that is likely to offer value given not only the aforementioned carryover but also that the average win odds of 5.88-to-1 translates into a 6-race parlay of $21,210 for $0.20.

All that plus an average field size of more than 10 in the sequence should equal a five-figure payout even with the twenty-cent minimum.

To say I’m excited would be an understatement. It’s pretty rare that this type of opportunity hits at a track where I feel I have a genuine edge. The reality is there are better players than me betting on the big circuits like NYRA, Kentucky, and Florida, and while there are still better players than me in Ohio, too, there are almost assuredly less of them, which is why a $200,000 pool with a 30% boost is so appealing.

The first thing I do when I know I’m going to bet significant money (whether it’s the players pool’s, my own, or in this case: both!) is take a survey of the track’s results and the sequence. This is the first step in the SQRRR method I learned in 1st grade and still use today: Survey, Question, Read, Review, Recite.

Based on the At A Glance for Mahoning Valley below as well as the summary pages of the Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances, it’s pretty clear that inside early speed is the preferred trip in most cases but isn’t a necessity. You can press or stalk and get the job done, but deep closers are more likely to need a superlative performance.

An interesting tidbit from my ALLWAYS database is that at the current meeting using the combined two best Brisnet.com Speed Ratings from the past 3 performances is a better indicator of success in an upcoming race than using only the last Speed Rating. This is atypical track to track but shows that you can forgive a poor performance as anomaly or perhaps play against that breakthrough winner if a horse you like is not as fast but consistent.

One last note of interest before diving into these races on a horse-by-horse basis is that there’s a strong confidence interval for handicapping maiden claiming races. ALLWAYS reports high win percentages and ROI for its top pick in that type of race at Mahoning Valley, and Predicteform Race Analyzer reports similar results for its TOP CONTENDER and TOP VALUE designation for this class at Mahoning Valley.

Does this mean that we’ll be looking for a single in races 5 and/or 9? No. It means that a single is more likely to come out of these races than others, but more importantly it means that I’ll be willing to lean on 2-3 horses here on ALL TICKETS rather than 1-2 on a main and several on a backup. I.e. the logical contenders are more likely to be a narrow group.

MAHONING VALLEY RACE COURSE AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 5.88 – 1
Favorite Win%: 36%, Favorite Itm%: 69%
EXOTICS PAYOFF
Exacta 99.91
Daily Double 97.42
Trifecta 697.70
Pick 3 1,100.06
Superfecta 7,159.16
Pick 4 3,042.45
Pick 6 Jackpot 7,305.60
TRACK BIAS MEET(10/28 – 12/26)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
5.5fDirt 56 32% E Rail
6.0fDirt 126 39% E Rail/Ins
1 MileDirt 48 42% E Rail/Ins
1m 70yDirt 29 21% E/P Middle
TRACK BIAS WEEK(12/20 – 12/26)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
5.5fDirt 9 44% E Rail/Ins
6.0fDirt 7 43% E Rail/Ins
1 MileDirt 1 0% E/P Rail/Ins
1m 70yDirt 5 0% E/P Outside
Who’s HOT, Who’s NOT
HOT TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’15-‘
16
Win%
Sullivan Elliot 7 3 1 0 4.91 2 26%
Ruberto Sharon 4 2 1 0 3.08 1 32%
Reed Larry R. 5 2 1 0 11.54 0 16%
Angelle Brent 6 2 0 0 16.55 0 19%
HOT JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’15-‘
16
Win%
Fadlovich Megan 10 3 0 1 18.75 0 12%
Quinones Luis M. 10 3 3 1 3.82 2 19%
COLD TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’15-‘
16
Win%
Brown John T. 14 0 0 0 26.59 1 4%
Vazquez Ivan 10 0 0 1 40.45 0 6%
COLD JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’15-‘
16
Win%
Rodriguez Jaime 11 0 2 1 10.79 3 21%

 

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