August 10, 2022

How to bet the Southwest Stakes 20% Double Bonus on

Oaklawn Park does not have rolling doubles, which means your only chance at’s 20% double bonus involving the Southwest Stakes is the races 9-10 late double in Hot Springs.

The double begins with the Southwest Stakes (CLICK HERE for FREE Ultimate Past Performances) and concludes with a salty allowance race for three-year-old males featuring Transgress and New York Central. For FREE Premium Past Performances on all races at Oaklawn, Fair Grounds, and Delta, CLICK HERE.

It’s a pretty straightforward double for me with Mourinho the most likely winner of the Southwest and either Transgress or New York Central likely to win the finale. Even with the 20% bonus, it’s tough to make any money deviating from that opinion as those doubles are likely to return 2- and 3-to-1 respectively. The 20% turns those into 5-to-2 and 4-to-1, though, so we’ll stick to 4 with 5,6 unless we see something crazy among the 1,2,6,7,8,10,11 with 2,3,8,10 combos (100-to-1 plus).

As for Mourinho, he just looks to have the measure of these. Admittedly this is a potential attend-the-funeral-after-missing-the-wedding scenario, as I preferred Combatant in the Smarty Jones, but I have to trust what I saw that day, and Mourinho looked to be the superior animal to me. Yes, that short-stretch mile trip benefits him more than today’s 1 1/16-mile full-stretch, but I think he handles this trip too. As for the “there’s a lot of pace on paper” argument: yes, that’s true from a “several horses like to be on or near the lead” standpoint, but none are as fast as Mourinho. I.e., I don’t see him being pushed to run his race early, and he’ll be tough to catch late. He’s a single for me in all multis.

For those looking to play the whole card, including interesting Pick 5 and Pick 4 sequences to close the card, my grid is below