April 25, 2024

How To Build Your Kentucky Derby Bankroll in the Arkansas Derby & Lexington Stakes

Today is the last opportunity to opt in and play the TwinSpires.com Build Your Derby Bankroll promotion.

To win money, opt in and wager $10 across the board (win, place, & show) on one horse in each of today’s Kentucky Derby points races: the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park (click each race name for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances).

Besides winning your bet if your horse hits the board, you earn extra money based on placing. A show is worth $2, place is worth $5, and win is worth $10, and it’s cumulative, so a win is actually worth $17 and place is worth $7.

For me, the extra money makes taking a shorter price more acceptable. E.g., Solomini in the Arkansas Derby would return $30 on a $10 win bet based on his morning line, but getting $40 back turns him into 3-to-1. My second pick in the race is Tenfold, and at 10-to-1, a $110 return would be nice, but adding $10 to that only makes it 11-to-1 and that just seems less sexy than going from 2- to 3-to-1.

And while the $10 can help turn an underlay into a fair value play, it shouldn’t be viewed as cart blanche to default to the chalk. Magnum Moon at 5-to-2 has more appeal than at 3-to-2, but I still see Solomini as the better play at 3-to-1.

In the Lexington, I will actually yield to the favorite, as I think My Boy Jack is more likely to hit the board than my top pick Greyvitos, who off the bunch concerns me a bit as an all-or-nothing type. And again, the chance to go from 2-to-1 to 3-to-1 just has more appeal than a notch up at a bigger price.