by SCOTT SHAPIRO
For the first time since 1996, when Grindstone missed the Preakness Stakes (G1) following a career-ending injury he sustained after winning the Kentucky Derby (G1), the run for the Black-Eyed Susans will not feature the Derby winner.
While this year’s Preakness lacks in star power, it does offer competitiveness, which makes it an attractive analytical puzzle for horseplayers on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course. For FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances for the Preakness Stakes, CLICK HERE. For all Pimlico handicapping reports, CLICK HERE.
#4 Improbable is listed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite off of his fourth-place effort in the Derby. The son of City Zip has been consistent as a 3-year-old, but far from dominant, as he has yet to hit the wire first in three starts. His performance two weeks ago under the Twin Spires was solid, and he did encounter minor traffic, but he had a fair shot when they turned for home and lacked a significant rally. He certainly makes sense to be a factor in the lane, but at his price I will play against on top on Saturday.
#1 War of Will is also likely to take quite a bit of money off of his troubled trip in Louisville. The son of War Front trained forwardly heading into the Derby and appeared loaded over the Churchill Downs slop, but never got a fair shake. The Mark Casse trainee would have been much better served with an outside draw, but if jockey Tyler Gaffalione is able to avoid traffic issues this time around, he has as good a chance as anyone. I expect his price on the Win end to be far shorter than I am willing to take, but he is a major player nonetheless.
#2 Bourbon War ran well in Florida to start the year for trainer Mark Hennig, including a runner-up finish in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in early March. The $410,000 Keeneland November purchase from 2016 lacks early zip, but has shown a strong turn of foot in the lane, which makes him the likeliest to take advantage of a contentious pace Saturday. Even with just moderate early fractions, I expect the son of Tapit to put in a solid late run good enough to pass most of this group. I am not sure he is fast enough to win this thing, but he makes a lot of sense as an underneath key horse in the 2019 Preakness.
Trainer Brad Cox sends out two colts as he looks to earn his first victory in a Triple Crown race.
#3 Warrior’s Charge finished third in his initial three tries, but has won two consecutive races at Oaklawn Park in frontrunning fashion. He takes a big step up in class and is unlikely to have things as easy in his first try versus graded stakes company, but he is not without a chance.
#5 Owendale makes his first start since a 1 ¾-length win in the Lexington Stakes (G3) in mid-April. The Rupp Racing runner got the jump on #12 Anothertwistafate in that spot and found the winners’ circle for the third time in his career. He will need to replicate that career-best performance or run better to beat this group, but that is not impossible.
Anothertwistafate is a must use for trainer Blaine Wright. The $360,000 OBS June purchase in 2018 has done little wrong over his last five starts. He was beaten by Owendale at Keeneland, but one can argue he ran as well if not better that afternoon. I love the outside draw for the son of Scat Daddy, because it should allow jockey Jose Ortiz to get a clean stalking trip just off of the early pacesetters. He is one of the likely winners in this year’s Preakness.
#7 Alwaysmining is the hometown hero and is difficult to discount. He has won six in a row for trainer Kelly Rubley and done so in dominating fashion. He draws outside the other speed, which could be helpful if he can find a way to relax early like he did in the Federico Tesio. He gets a major class test, but his current form makes him tough to toss.
#9 Bodexpress and #13 Win Win Win were outrun in the Derby, but could provide value underneath in the exotics.
Here is how I recommend attacking the race with three different budget ranges:
$20 Budget
$.50 Trifecta Wheel
1+7+12 with 2 with 1+3+4+5+7+12+13 = $9
$.50 Trifecta Wheel
1+7+12 with 1+3+4+5+7+12+13 with 2 = $9
$ 1 Exacta
1+12 with 2 = $2
$100 Budget
$1 Trifecta Wheel
1+5+7+12 with 2 with 1+3+4+5+7+9+12+13 = $28
$1 Trifecta Wheel
1+5+7+12 with 1+3+5+7+9+12+13 with 2 =$24
$6 Exacta Wheel
1+5+7+12 with 2 = $24
$.20 Superfecta Wheel
1+12 with 2 with 1+3+5+7+12+13 with 1+3+4+5+7+9+12+13 = $12
$.20 Superfecta Wheel
1+12 with 1+3+5+7+12+13 with 2 with 1+3+4+5+7+9+12+13 = $12
$500 Budget
$1 Superfecta Wheel
1+7+12 with 2 with 1+3+4+5+7+12+13 with 1+3+4+5+7+8+9+12+13 = $126
$1 Superfecta Wheel
1+7+12 with 1+3+4+5+7+12+13 with 2 with 1+3+4+5+7+8+9+12+13 = $126
$5 Trifecta Wheel
1+12 with 1+3+5+7+12+13 with 2 = $60
$5 Trifecta Wheel
1+12 with 2 with 1+3+4+5+7+9+12+13 = $70
$30 Exacta Wheel
1+12 with 2= $60
$28 Exacta
7-2 =$28
$5 Tri Wheel
1+7+12 with 1+7+12 with 2= $30
Good luck Saturday, and follow me on Twitter @ScottShap34
