The “green” PlotFit is in play for this restricted claiming event and shown without much change looking from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance. With that noted there is a “fire” Contention combined with a modest 20 SpeedRate. That scenario, while contentious, does not necessarily mean a “fast” early pace and can allow for a “best of the speed” type winner. In that case, morning line favorite #10 RECOUNT is quite logical given current form and positioned as a Square in Quad I. As shown in the “Past 3 Runlines” his OptixFIG all highlighted and in OptixFIGRANGE for this event. He has some upside given this will be a softer spot (OFR lighter this afternoon) compared to the races he has run in already this meet. In his 6th place finish in the most recent start, the race just about a week ago, he was part of the early pace (DUEL) with two others and resulted in the winner running on from off the pace.
#1 KNIGHTS KEY has some upside this afternoon and presents value in this race. He does not “Plot” all that favorably, though consideration should be given based on his recent races and the class level that he had been running in compared to the level he will run at in here. This will be his second start of the meet and for trainer David Vance and should be able to move forward from his February 28 race. Not only was he coming back off the layoff and in a higher claiming event that afternoon but found himself in TROUBLE early and forced WIDE. The early trouble forced him well off the early pace, a running position not uncommon for him, though was against the dynamics chasing well behind a very slow opening half-mile. While not easy to see in the running line alone, he was putting in a run late and made up ground against the flow. Vance will also send out #8 I’M CORFU and, similar to when the two Vance runners ran last month, expects to be part of the early pace (Quad I), something that will assist KNIGHTS KEY.