Analysis of Friday’s second race at Churchill Downs:
#1 Nautilus — Sire Cairo Prince was a two-time graded stakes winner running a mile or farther, but dam Pantanal might add a bit of speed to Nautilus’ pedigree since her best foal to date, Borracho, was a juvenile winner who placed in the Woody Stephens (G1) sprinting 7 furlongs. Cairo Prince sires 12% debut winners and Nautilus has flashed some talent in the mornings, clocking a bullet half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :46 1/5 on May 16. Trainer Brad Cox is off to a sharp start at Churchill (5-for-19, 26%) and hot jockey John Velazquez takes the mount, stamping Nautilus as a key player.
#2 Medicine Tail — Though sire Kantharos was a sprinter who generally throws speedy types (and 17% debut winners), Medicine Tail could inherit some stamina from dam Leh She Run, a daughter of Pulpit who previously produced 1 1/8-mile Remsen (G2) winner O’Prado Again. Sold for $230,000 as a yearling, Medicine Tail brings a light work tab to the equation for trainer Dane Kobiskie (7% with runners debuting in maiden special weights), but star local jockey Corey Lanerie being named to ride is a plus.
#3 New York One — A January foal, this son of Kentucky Derby/Preakness champion Big Brown could have a slight maturity advantage over his younger rivals. A handful of quick 3-furlong gate breezes at The Thoroughbred Center suggest this James Chapman-trained youngster can flash some speed on debut, though the first three foals produced by New York One’s dam Guinevere’s Reign have all failed to win.
#4 Cazadero — No trainer has conditioned more juvenile debut winners at Churchill in recent years than Steve Asmussen, who has gone 37-for-162 (23%) with such runners since the beginning of 2015. Sire Street Sense was a beast at Churchill, winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and dam Wild Gams was a three-time graded stakes-winning sprinter who counts the stakes-winning sprinter Mt. Brave among her previous foals. A long, steady work tab suggests Cazadero can factor on debut with Asmussen’s go-to jockey Ricardo Santana aboard.
#5 El Casadora — Sold for just $1,200 as a yearling, El Casadora hails from the first North American foal crop sired by Vancouver, a high-class juvenile who won Australia’s prestigious Golden Slipper (G1) sprinting 6 furlongs on grass. Damsire Colonel John was a Grade 1 winner on both dirt and synthetic tracks but has largely produced turf horses at stud, suggesting El Casadora will ultimately prove best on the lawn. He might also need to get a race under his belt, considering trainer Adolfo Macias has gone 0-for-35 with first-time starters since 2016.
#6 Paquime — Speed could be Paquime’s forte since sire Cinco Charlie won six sprint stakes during a productive career. Dam Raramuri Princess was a 0-for-10 maiden, but the daughter of Northern Afleet has produced three winners from four starters (including one who scored as a juvenile), so from a pedigree perspective there’s plenty to like about Paquime. But it’s worth noting trainer Diocili Carvalho doesn’t saddle many starters and hasn’t reached the winner’s circle since 2016.
#7 Our Commish — Son of stoutly-bred Belmont Stakes (G1) runner-up Commissioner might inherit some speed from dam Manille, a pure sprinter who won six of her 18 starts while competing on both dirt and turf. Commissioner sires a respectable 13% debut winners and Our Commish has turned in some solid works at The Thoroughbred Center, but trainer Billy Hardin is 0-for-39 lifetime with first-time starters, so Our Commish might need a run before finding his best form.
#8 Orb of the Boro — Sire Orb won the 2013 Kentucky Derby and dam I Love America has produced six winners from six starters, including the five-time stakes-winning sprinter American Sugar, who carried her speed sufficiently to finish third in the Honeybee (G3) running 1 1/16 miles. A $23,000 yearling purchase, Orb of the Boro brings four modest workouts to the equation for trainer Eric Foster (6% with debut runners), who enlists hot jockey Martin Garcia to ride.
#9 Dauer — Sire Dominus was a versatile miler who won graded stakes races on both dirt and turf, but dam Do Some Good — a daughter of British-bred Arlington Million (G1) winner Powerscourt — figures to tip the scale of Dauer’s pedigree in favor of turf. Dominus does sire 13% debut winners, but look for Dauer to find his best stride when trying grass down the road.
#10 Gypsy King — Trainer Wesley Ward is renowned for his success conditioning early-maturing juvenile sprinters, winning at a 29% rate with first-time starters, and his stable is warming up after a slow start to the spring. Gypsy King’s dam Gittel was unremarkable, but sire Summer Front was a classy turf miler who hit the board five times against Grade 1 company. A bullet half-mile breeze in :47 1/5 on May 22 at Keeneland suggests Gypsy King has the speed to contend on debut with hot jockey Joel Rosario in the saddle, though a short price is guaranteed thanks to Ward’s reputation.
#11 Smooth Music — Sire Maclean’s Music only ran once, winning his debut by 7 1/4 lengths with massive speed figures, but dam Smart Exploits was tough as nails, competing 71 times over the course of five seasons. The first foal bred on this cross failed to threaten in two starts, but Maclean’s Music sires a hefty 16% debut winners, so there’s a chance this $15,000 yearling purchase will flash a bit more life on debut than his full sibling.
#12 Knicks Front — A son of Wood Memorial (G1) winner Outwork, Knicks Front has been breezing up a storm for trainer Brad Cox, firing off a quartet of quick half-mile workouts at Keeneland since the end of April. Produced by the stakes-placed sprinter Pretty Miss Trippi, Knicks Front blazed a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :46 1/5 on May 16, suggesting he’ll be a factor from the outset on debut. Hot jockey Florent Geroux will guide the speedy youngster, who was purchased for $190,000 in March by KRA Stud Farm.
#13 County Final — Bred by Calumet Farm, County Final sold for just $9,500 as a yearling, but the son of Preakness (G1) champion Oxbow has flashed plenty of speed during the mornings, cruising a half-mile from the gate in :47 1/5 on May 12 at The Thoroughbred Center. Dam Tapajo was a stakes winner over distances from 6 furlongs to a mile, not surprising since the progeny of her sire, Tapit, have been successful under a wide variety of circumstances. County Final can be a longshot player if he draws in off the also-eligible list.
#14 Really Slow — The field’s lone experienced runner failed to flash any speed in his debut on May 22 at Churchill, trailing at every call of a 4 1/2-furlong sprint to finish 37 lengths behind the winner. That was a bit surprising considering the son of Congrats had posted a couple of bullet works leading up to his debut, so perhaps Really Slow will show a bit more life while returning on short rest. Trainer Paul McEntee has named apprentice jockey Kody Kellenberger to ride, so Really Slow will benefit from a 7-pound weight break if he draws in off the also-eligible list.
