Emily Gullikson analyzes the Oaklawn Park April 29 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
The “Fire” Contention here with five horses in Quad I/III and to the left of the y-axis sets up a pace scenario for a tracking runner. #4 SPOTTED BULL is capable to sit with first run tracking from Quad II and is upgraded as a Square on Surface/Distance. He was forced into a BUNCHED group contesting the lead (X_FLOW) not his ideal trip on March 31 though should benefit from that start returning second off the claim here for Diodoro. Also upgraded on Surface/Distance, #6 IN THE ARCH is capable to sneak away at a price. His form if a bit sneaky just isolating his main track sprint races, especially those on a fast track.
#8 DECADE will make her belated return to the races this afternoon starting off her sophomore season in the closing week of the meet. In terms of timing she just started publishing works in mid-March at Fair Grounds and has been able to breeze here in April to get familiarity and conditioning for this race. She was consistent in both starts last season and with both of those races in terms of OptixFIG sitting in RANGE and on par with the others in this field. That is notable here as Decade has the ability to improve off those juvenile numbers, whereas the rest of the field has been running here this season and presenting their current speed figure ability. Class-wise this will be a test as well making her first start against winners. The debut race at Ellis Park in August was not a very strong event and Sept. 20 race was only a four-horse field, though the place finisher came out of that race to break her maiden at Keeneland next out. Decade will find the test she needs this afternoon to show where she belongs, though looks well placed here by Asmussen to continue on competitive ways.
#3 JILTED BRIDE not only is in excellent form right now (BTL and B+ OptixGRADE), but she lands in a favorable pace scenario for this step up in class. As shown on OptixPLOT the “Fire” Contention is paired with the higher 67 SpeedRate. That can be seen visually as well with more than half of the field above the Par Line. That continues and is supported on OptixRPM with five of the six runners here sharing an EP RunStyle and leaving Jilted Bride given the “lone closer” angle and positioned to get the set up for her late run.