Emily Gullikson analyzes the Oaklawn Park April 30 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
The “Fire” Contention is paired with a lower SpeedRate, a scenario that upgrades runners as Quad I Squares. #7 FABULOUS GIRL sits in a good position here with first call speed to keep pace with #4 STYLIN UPTOWN, sitting the trip forwardly placed as she returns to the sprint distance. #6 SKAMANIA will look for first run on that pair and should get attention here coming off the April 17 win. While that effort and 88 OptixFIG stands out in the Past 3 Runlines, it is also a new top in the form cycle for Skamania and could see her regress off that perfect trip effort today. That upgrades #9 RAGATAGTAG, the place finisher from that April 17 allowance, who is also logical on the Plot, another Quad I Square, and one with consistent OptixFIG in RANGE.
#8 MARY ALICE does not hold any clear advantage from pace/Plot or in her Past 3 Runlines; however, she does have some upside in this race today that could see a top effort from her at a big number. This will be her fourth start of the meet and in a spot where she should be sitting on a peak effort. She needed the February 26 race coming back off the layoff with a less than ideal inside trip. She raced just 13 days later at a higher state-bred allowance at the route distance, a distance beyond her limits. Claimed out of the April 2 race where she was used as a frontrunner, she took pressure before fading. That was another tactical decision taking her out of her preferred running style and playing a role in the current Circle position on the Plot. She will make her first start for Milligan, a barn that is capable first off the claim, and could see her improve as her prior trainer struggled to find the right spot and her best form to compete.
There is a similar dynamic to Race 7 here with the “Fire” Contention with a lower SpeedRate, a scenario upgrading the Squares in Quad I. That scenario fits #1 CHIPOFFTHEOLDBLOCK as a large tracking Square in the center and splitting Quad I/II. He lands here coming out of a similar conditioned race on April 3, a race that has been productive with the runners returning in their next start. That gives a look to #10 PRINCIPE GUILHERME at a price. He does not hold a strong pace advantage on the Plot in Quad IV, though will make his third start of the form cycle and holds back class and OptixFIG in RANGE for this event with a move forward to a top possible this afternoon. Part of that improvement could come with the barn change. Re-claimed by Diodoro out of the April 3 race, Principe Guilherme was able to find his peak form for this barn last season.