June 8, 2023

Indiana Grand Circles & Squares analysis for Oct. 27, 2021

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Indiana Grand Circles & Squares


Wednesday’s race highlights a “Yellow” PlotFit, one that can come up often in this scenario dealing with lightly-raced juveniles. This is key for these inexperienced runners that are still developing and finding their preferred running style, which requires some projection from the handicapper. That will be kept in mind here as the race shape remains fluid, even as the pace expects to be honest with the Sun Contention and above average 58 SpeedRate.

The OptixRPM (Run Style Match) shows six of the seven in this field as an E (Early) RunStyle. Two of those runners, #5 UPSIDE DOWN and #7 CANDY RAID, are highlighted in “Red” to show while they have won as “E,” their RPM (Run Style) does not Match up with their Plot position in today’s race. For both of these horses their maiden win was as an “E” runner; however their other races were not as effective in that Run Style, and are shown today in Quad II and IV, respectively. The Contention/SpeedRate could benefit this pair as far as a trip, according to the Plot with this projected pace dynamic. That is similar for #1 MI ESTRELLA as the lone “PC,” though in terms of OptixFIG sits below RANGE and will need to have the pace to compensate for her lack of speed in this case to win.

Candy Raid has some upside in terms of her current form with progressive OptixFIG and making her second start of the form cycle. That progression is noted as a complement to her position on the Plot – tracking off that first flight as a Square in Quad IV, though a Square that is moving closer to the Quad II/III area.

In terms of the “E” Runners, all likely to take up that front-running role in here based on the Green OptixRPM, #2 MAW’S GLORY could hold the edge as the lone Quad I Square. She has the 72 OptixFIG that sits in RANGE and B OptixGRADE at the Special Weight level. That Speed and Class is shared with #6 SHEZ RECKLESS, who can compete in this race and could be upgraded on the Plot. She is lightly raced and the second start, the stakes race back in August, plays a role in that Large Circle. With her position in front at the first call (furthest left) and second call (highest up on the y-axis) she could be the controlling speed though will have to deal with the noted pace pressure and show more finish – things to consider when playing as she is projected to be favored in this race.

#3 DELIGHTFUL BREEZE also has legit early speed in a similar position to Shez Reckless to keep her honest, though she has similar finishing concerns as a Circle, especially as she is likely to be used early (duel) with that rival. #4 ROYAL ROSIE has some finishing ability shown as a Square, though her position in Quad III could be compromised in this case if asked to run early with Delightful Breeze and Shez Reckless as the “E” RunStyle suggests.