May 22, 2022

Oaklawn Circles & Squares Analysis for Dec. 12

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares

RACE 1:

Kelsi Harr has been able to convert #6 VERY SPICY from a Quad IV closing type to a more effective EP Run Style type in the past. That is noted here looking at today’s OptixPLOT and while there are minimal changes from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance the “RED” PlotFit has to be considered in this case. There is a lack of E or EP types and that could allow for Very Spicy and Harr to inherit that role. She has the ability not only to take up that Run Style but also IMPROVE exiting the October 7th event at Remington park when she broke slow (SLOG) and was not asked for run (TACTIC- and NO_PUSH) making a late MOVE on her own behind the open length pacesetting winner (and next out winner) Lady Ave.  #3 MY BOSS LADY certainly makes sense as a more logical type in this race. Class wise this is a lateral move with the same OptixFIGRANGE from the November 14th race at Hawthorne, a race she will have to improve off the B- OptixGRADE to win here.

RACE 4:

November 19th was a strange day in terms of the weather impacting the race dynamics at Woodbine and #2 LOOKIN GOOD SO FAR might have been compromised by those conditions. Horses that were forwardly placed, especially those inside and covered up were flattered and that was not the position he was able to establish breaking slow (SLOG) from the rail. The 7th place finisher, Silver Signature, had a similar trip to Lookin Good So Far by breaking slow and came back to finish in a photo for the win earning a 72 OptixFIG on December 5th at Woodbine. As far as class, this is a lateral type move if not even a subtle class drop as the OptixFIGRANGE was a higher 69-61 than today’s 58-50 event.

#7 RAISE THE PURSES was also impacted from a rough start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) on debut when he lunged out of the gate and stumbled on recovery. He was unable to recover and run to expectations as the favorite as the wide kept him wide and in hand from off the pace in a race shape that offered minimal change in running order.

In terms of the Plot, #5 DRIFTER stands out and has the established for off his races to date and current form cycle. He fits logically on that front and wheeling back in a week first off the claim for Garcia. He inherits the more obvious “horse to beat” role off his established form and holding an edge over rivals #4 CAN’T BEAT ME and #8 REMEMBER NORMANDY.