February 8, 2023

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Dec. 5

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares


Today’s race is a competitive starter allowance race for fillies and mares going a mile, eight furlongs, on the main track. Pace should make this race with the “Fire” Contention and above average 67 SpeedRate. While there are minimal changes from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance, the “Red” PlotFit will be respected and taken into consideration for handicapping this race.

#3 TRUMPET LILLY could take up the role as the favorite in this event coming off an open-length win last month at Churchill Downs. She was able to find a “LONE” lead, and based on her Plot position as a Quad I Circle, she is unlikely to find a similar scenario today. Today’s race shape should see her vulnerable in that role as a favorite.

#2 RIGHT TRAPPE is upgraded as a Square on Standard, though downgraded on Surface/Distance as a Circle showing a lack of finish. That lack of finish is concerning in a race shape such as this with the Contention and SpeedRate. #4 ITALIAN TWIN has the same concerns with the Plot position and shape. That said, she is lightly raced and has “trips” that are impacting her Plot today. That “dirtied” up form gives her a look at a price (value/longshot) holding OptixFIG in RANGE for today’s race and ability to improve (Green Keyword) from the Oct. 14 race.

The opposite is in play for #1 GUANA CAY, who offers value today moving from a Standard Circle to a Square on Surface/Distance, as she is capable of finding the right race shape for her running style at this distance. She has the ability to stalk and finish around two turns, and the positional speed as shown in her current (Standard) form as necessary. Contreras claimed her back on Oct. 29 and ran her at a much higher allowance level at Churchill Downs on Nov. 18. Second off the claim is a key angle, and the angle in play here as they show positive intent with the class drop placing Guana Cay where she can compete.

#5 LEA RO shows an overlapping Surface/Distance position to rival Guana Cay as she fits for today’s dynamic as a Square with the PC Run Style. She is shown in Quad IV though has the subtle switch on Surface/Distance which could allow for her to sit closer to the pace if asked and needed. While she is logical from that perspective, her form cycle is noted as she is coming off a win just 17 days ago. While in current form, she tends to run that “winning” race with more time between starts; the 41-day timing with the Indiana Grand win on Sept. 23 and 38-day rest on Nov. 18 at Churchill Downs. Value has to be considered in this case and could be another to grasp a lot of public attention coming off the open-length win.

#6 FLASHY BIZ will look to turn her Oaklawn Park race record around today, and she is in the right spot to do so. That 0-for-12 standing out in the standard past performances could see the public shy away from her in this spot, where she fits all around as a contender. In terms of her local record, she was recording OptixFIG in RANGE for today’s race and following her here over the last two years, the course itself was not the reason that kept her from a win. The race shape flatters her running style, and she should find an ideal trip as shown as a Square in Quad II, a position that will allow for her to track the first flight (Quad I) with positional second call speed (high on y-axis) and the ability to take first run and finish/Square.