September 28, 2022

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for Jan. 2

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares

Race 1

#2 RUN FEARLESS has hidden form at this state-bred maiden claiming level to make her a contender today. Those two races were run here last season with the photo-finish win back on Mar. 27 and later in the meet on May 1. Those efforts recorded higher OptixFIG than the others in the field, and in addition to class, she holds a speed figure edge as well. The challenge for her could be the layoff as she makes her first start back after a 210-day break.

Race 2

The connections of #3 BEBOP SHOES looked to be using the Dec. 19 starter allowance going first off the claim and waiting for a state-bred event. That angle is in play here, finding class relief and the required fitness to make his second start of this meet. The race shape does project to have a Contentious (Fire) early pace; however the lower 22 SpeedRate could allow for horses forwardly placed to hold speed, and Bebop Shoes has shown versatility and finish here in previous seasons. That will be necessary in terms of trip, one that does not “stand out” in this “Yellow” PlotFit, though recent trips as well as the higher level of competition have played a role in his Circle shape.

Race 3

This maiden claiming race will feature a pair exiting the Nov. 4 race at Churchill Downs. We will start with #1 MOTION PICTURE, as he will make his second start at the maiden claiming level and looks for some redemption after coming up short as the favorite in that event. The effort itself from that afternoon must improve, though he could find that here freshened for this race and holding speed figures (OptixFIG in RANGE) from his first two starts that make him competitive at this level.

#10 FALCON HEAVY was not asked for much run after a rough start (TROUBLE_S) and racing off the pace. He will also look to improve here as he has been freshened for this event and makes his first start today off the claim for Diodoro. In terms of his individual ability, Falcon Heavy ran a competitive speed figure, 77 OptixFIG, in the Oct. 9 maiden claiming event at Keeneland, a race on repeat that makes him a contender. The race shape (43 Speed) could also favor Falcon Heavy as one that tends to break slow and makes his run from off the pace.