July 4, 2022

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for April 16

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares

RACE 7:

Before going into the main event later on the card, Steve Asmussen shows up in this allowance with #4 OSCARETTE making her Oaklawn Park return. Looking at the OptixPLOT along with the “Fire” Contention and above average 43 SpeedRate, a Circle in Quad I does present a pace handicapping factor risk. Keeping that in mind as far as requiring value, Oscarette has some upside and even some hidden form that could present a pace advantage and Plot upgrade from the current appearance. She is a lightly raced filly that could be on the improve as she makes just her second start of the season. Oscarette has a poor gate history (SLOG, RUSH), though she has also been able to show legit early speed (X_FLOW) at times and that could allow her to break on top and dictate the pace as she did with her Nov. 18 Special Weight win and Optional Claiming win Feb. 21 at the Fair Grounds.

Oscarette could be the lone E runner in the field and that would place the other EP types, #1 I’M THE BOSS OF ME, #3 ALBERTA SUN and #5 SOUTHERN GRAYCE into a tracking role; with that group all shown as Circles, the horse on the lead could have the advantage. #2 CONNIE K also has some tactical speed and finishing ability shown in Quad III as a Large Square. This pace dynamic might not be ideal for her, especially if she is forced to run with Oscarette to the first and second call, something that could take some starch out of her finish/Square.

#6 WELL SPENT will look to take advantage of that “Fire” Contention and SpeedRate as the stalking Square in Quad IV. In addition to pace, she has the class challenge as well as this is a big step up in class for her exiting the N1X allowance with the 87-79 OptixFIGRANGE (OFR) on March 6 as well as her form from last year races at the claiming level. Quad IV Circle #7 HOTASAPISTOL has the same pace, class and even speed (OptixFIG) challenge returning from the 226-day layoff in this spot. With those hurdles this could be a sign (prep?) as she is initiating a new form cycle and might need a race.  

RACE 9:

The race shape with the “Red” PlotFit is on the chaotic side and shown visually with the changes from Standard to Surface/Distance. The “Snowflake” Contention will be in play, though it is combined with a higher 63 SpeedRate. That is also shown visually on Standard (current form) with the majority of the field above the Par Line and to the left of the y-axis. #7 ANTIGRAVITY could benefit from that pace scenario with his late run and positioned as a Quad IV Square. This season, Antigravity has been compromised with his RunStyle and the race dynamic tracking behind Slow/VerySlow (S/VS O4S) race shapes and left with too much to do late. Those race shapes have played a role in his result as shown in the Past 3 Runlines where he lacks “Red” and comes into this race off the BTL/Better Than Looked show finish on Feb. 25.

RACE 11 – COUNT FLEET SPRINT (G3):

#5 JACKIE’S WARRIOR is a legitimate (and even value at 6-5) favorite in this race. His class, with the higher OptixGRADE at the graded stakes level along with strong OptixFIG stack up on RANGE for this race. Pace is the key with this front running type and he has a favorable race shape for his RunStyle today. His position in Quad I holds a pace advantage at both the first and second call over #3 LETSGETLUCKY and #4 EMPIRE OF GOLD, with Jackie’s Warrior as a Square presenting the edge on finishing ability over those rivals. That will be key today as he makes his seasonal return, his first start back since the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) 161 days ago. The placement returning in this event for Jackie’s Warrior could be a calculated move by the connections as the winner of this race is “Win and You’re In” type for the Maryland Sprint Stakes run on the Preakness (G1) undercard at Pimlico.

#1 MOJO MAN was able to make a LONE lead in his March 25 win, though as shown in Quad III/IV today, he does have the tactical speed to run with those other front running types and the reason for the “Red” coded OptixRPM. #2 CHIPOFFTHEOLDBLOCK is also highlighted in “Red” with the OptixRPM mismatch today placed in Quad IV. The pace advantage for Jackie’s Warrior on the lead could make him tough to run down for #6 BOB’S EDGE, the Large Square in Quad IV.