August 18, 2022

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for April 9

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares

RACE 2:

The lack of finish (NO_FINISH) has been present with #2 MILANA, though in terms of this race shape that could change today. Milana could have the pace advantage she requires shown as a Quad I Square and the only runner above the Par Line. She is a slight flow upgrade returning from the March 24 race where she was forced to use early in order to clear and establish position from the outside post. Her OptixFIG stack up in today’s OptixFIGRANGE and should offer value according to the morning line.

RACE 4:

#8 DRAG MALIBU debuted at this $50k maiden claiming level Jan. 16 and will make a belated return to this condition. His effort, the B OptixGRADE, was considered a “winning” race for the level. He raced up close to the early pace and slightly against the dynamic as the race winner, Doctor Love, rallied from off the pace to win. It is reasonable to project some regression setting in off the debut effort, especially with the step up in class, as he was asked to run at the Special Weight level in the two starts that followed. He will not only find some class relief today, but also the change in distance returning to a sprint from the mile race three weeks ago.

The maiden claiming class drop should also assist #2 COLD CITY; though he figures to be one of the more obvious types to the public exiting the Special Weight races along with the top speed figure (82 OptixFIG) March 13. #4 AMITY ROAD will also find some class relief and return to a sprint off a 48-day freshening for Jerry Hollendorfer. Amity Road debuted at this $50k maiden claiming level, earning a B- OptixGRADE for his effort in that common race with Drag Malibu Jan. 16.

RACE 6:

#1 THUNDERHEART was given a Circles and Squares look back on March 25 with the class drop and some hidden form as shown on the Past 3 Runlines leading up to that race. The trip for Thunderheart was not “bad”, though he did find himself in a different scenario breaking on top of the field (POP) and setting the pace (PRESSED) for the first time. That race should add some conditioning to him, especially as he wheels right back in 15 days. Thunderheart projects to find a more favorable tracking trip today as a Quad I Square sitting off #5 K C ROCKET and #6 STAINLESS STEEL as shown on OptixPLOT.

K C Rocket is another logical type as he finds the favorable class drop from Special Weight that allows for him to be upgraded on the Plot as a Quad I Square similar to Thunderheart. #8 INVARIABLY is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite and looks a capable type on the class drop with his paired up 79 OptixFIG sitting in the OptixFIGRANGE/OFR. Invariably was entered and scratched out of a Special Weight 8.5-furlong route race on March 25 and will run here instead, entered for the $50k claiming tag and back sprinting. While capable, the placement is a bit curious and draws in the question of intent. Value and trip will also be required as Invariably has gate issues (SLOG) and is positioned here as a Square in Quad IV paired with the lower 12 SpeedRate.