July 2, 2022

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for May 6

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares


The Surface/Distance Plot should have #8 RESERVE sitting the right trip tracking as a Square in Quad I. The other projected pacesetters, #2 WESLEYAN, #5 JUSTIN SPEIGHT, and #7 STAINLESS STEEL, could soften each other up on the lead and lack finish (Circles) in the lane. The first run position is key, allowing Reserve the jump on the Quad IV runners, #1 LOOKINFOREXCITEMEN, #3 JOE BILL, #4 PROJECT THUNDER, and #6 TAKE NO PRISONERS.


Ron Moquett could look to close out the Double with #3 SWIFT TAP upgraded today on the class DROP. That Projection was given on April 4 in against the higher allowance condition. The upgrade is also shown on the Plot as he projects to hold a pace advantage (Quad I Square) in this race shape.


Morning line favorite #1 THE MARY ROSE is a logical type as an individual that stacks up on class (GRADE), Speed (OptixFIG) and form for this level. The challenge for her this afternoon could come in the form of pace with the required trip from the rail. She is a Large Square and should have the edge over the others positioned in that same Quad I. That said, the Contention is deep with the “Sun” rating paired with the higher 55 SpeedRate. If she is able to avoid a duel and a hot pace, her class can carry though should that Contention and SpeedRate get the best of her, the Quad IV Squares will look to stalk-and-pounce.

#10 KABOOM BABY is still unproven around two turns, though given the upgrade on the Plot in this scenario she has a longshot look. In terms of today’s mile distance, there could be some positive intent by the connections allowing her the experience on April 8 in open company for her route debut. If she is able to answer the distance question, her class is competitive on OptixGRADES combined with her OptixFIG within today’s OptixFIGRANGE (OFR) to win.

Current form could be the hurdle for #2 FLATOUTANDFOXY, with her recent success at a much lower restricted claiming level. She has races over this course and distance from back in 2020 that match her visuals on the Plot. #11 MY DAMS ATITUDE will wheel right back in just a week off the allowance win. She recorded a new top 90 OptixFIG that day. She has some form from this season that supported her win and prefers the faster pace to close into. #8 HOT SPRINGS BLING should benefit from the Contention and SpeedRate with her late run, however her OptixFIG are lighter on OFR where a minor finish could be the ceiling.