While many head south for the Winter, the Kentucky live racing scene heads north to Turfway Park in Florence Y’all for a four-month stand that begins Wednesday, November 29.
FOR HANDICAPPING INFORMATION FOR TURFWAY PARK, CLICK HERE!
A popular “joke” on social media regarding betting Turfway is that either a bomb or the favorite wins with the other completing the exacta. The average payouts below indicate this as well considering a three-race parlay at 5.2-to-1 average winning odds would pay $476.66, but the average Pick 3 pays $581.81–a 22.06% premium. It gets even better when throwing a fifth race into the mix, as the average Pick 4 of $7,577.57 is more than twice the 4-race parlay of $2,955.27.
So how do you find those bombs? Unfortunately it’s not easy. I have 582 races in my Brisnet.com ALLWAYS database from “last year” at Turfway (Nov. 30-April 1) with 75 (12.88%) winners paying at least 10-to-1. ALLWAYS allows the user to segment those races and retrofit what handicapping angles could have most likely led you to the winners as well as helping to identify red herring handicapping angles.
The strongest common denominator of the price horses is recent form. Horses who had raced within the past month with at least a published workout before the Turfway start were capable of form reversals. The eliminator angle was strong early speed. So, if the price is right, don’t be shy about taking a short layoff horse with a good work or two who figures to be running late.
On opening night, trainer Claude “Not Shug McGaughey” L. Brownfield III saddles three horses with #5 Rabanito fitting the profile in race 2, a $8,000 claimer. Rabantino sped and faded against allowance types from a far outside post last out on the Belterra Park turf, got a slight freshening for opening day including a published workout a couple weeks ago. 10-to-1 a fair price on this one to maybe blow up the early Pick 5 (races 1-5) and Pick 4 (races 2-5).
There’s also a late Pick 4 on races 5-8, which makes race 5 the most important of the night for multi-race players, as it covers both Pick 4s, the Pick 5, and a trio of Pick 3s. And–whew!–it’s a doozy of a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of 2 lifetime. If #14 Bro Stroll gets in he’d be a must-use as a horse with the highest last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating by 6 points, which wins at a 40% rate with a +4% ROI in Turfway routes. Really, both also eligibles are must uses if either/both draw in.
Watch my Twitter @EJXD2 for a grid closer to post time (6:15 p.m. EST).
TURFWAY PARK AT A GLANCE
|Avg. Winning Odds: 5.20 – 1|
|Favorite Win%: 36%, Favorite Itm%: 74%|
|Super High Five||4,050.17|