December 6, 2022

West Coast Horses Live Up to Hype; Gotham exceeds it

Justify brings a lofty reputation to the Santa Anita Derby ©Benoit Photo

Justify, Bolt d’Oro, McKinzie clear choices in Derby Future Wager

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (Monday, March 12, 2018) – With nothing separating McKinzie and Bolt d’Oro except the stewards’ stand, the San Felipe Stakes (G2) lived up to its pre-race hype from an entertainment perspective, but when it comes to the top performance of the weekend, the ratings are clear: Enticed was the superlative animal when winning the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct.

Enticed earned a 104 Speed and a 121.6 Class Rating for his 2 ¾-length Gotham win. The Speed Rating ties him with Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) hero Promises Fulfilled for best in the Kentucky Derby Championship Series (so far), and his Class Rating is best. As far as all male foals of 2015 go, Enticed is the eighth to register at least a 104 Speed Rating. The three with 105s are champion Good Magic in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Audible in the Holy Bull (G2), and Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner (G1); Audible’s 105 is the tops for 2018.

Kentucky Derby Championship Series Ratings

Date Track Distance Race Winner Speed Class
February 17 Fair Grounds 1 1/16 Risen Star Bravazo 98 119.4
March  3 Gulfstream 1 1/16 Fountain of Youth Promises Fulfilled 104 120.8
March 10 Tampa Bay 1 1/16 Tampa Bay Derby Quip 98 120.3
March 10 Aqueduct 1 mile Gotham Enticed 104 121.6
March 10 Santa Anita 1 1/16 San Felipe Bolt d’Oro* 98 120.7

*Bolt d’Oro placed 1st on disqualification of unofficial winner McKinzie

The Tampa Bay Derby (G2) was the other Kentucky Derby points race of the weekend and Quip earned a 98 Speed Rating for his 19-to-1 upset win. Neither Quip nor Enticed were part of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 body, which is part of the reason the mutuel field closed as the 4-to-1 favorite among the 24 wagering options.

McKinzie and Bolt d’Oro came into the San Felipe off layoffs of two and four months, respectively, and both had previously registered triple-digit Brisnet Speed Ratings, which could explain why Future Wager bettors sided with the San Felipe as most predictive of success among the three preps, as Bolt d’Oro closed as the 7.1-to-1 second choice (among individual wagering interests) in Pool 3 of the Derby Future while McKinzie was the 9.4-to-1 second choice. Undefeated maiden-allowance winner Justify was the 6.2-to-1 favorite among the 23 individual options.

Speaking of Justify, he earned a 104 Speed Rating in his second career start, a first-level allowance win on Sunday, March 11, at Santa Anita Park. He currently has 0 Kentucky Derby points and is attempting to become the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a two-year-old, but there’s no denying he’s fast, as he joins Kentucky Oaks hopeful Paved as the only three-year-olds this year to register multiple triple-digit Speed Ratings. proprietary data such as the Speed Ratings used here is available in the Ultimate Past Performances, which are free to players when they wager. The Speed Rating measures how fast a horse ran a particular race and is comparable across distance, surface, and location. For more information, CLICK HERE.