September 23, 2023

How to bet the Queen’s Plate Superfecta Saturday at Woodbine

The last time bettors had an opportunity to wager on a superfecta with 16 wagering interests in 20-cent increments was the 2011 Pattison Canadian International at Woodbine.

Assuming there are no scratches in this year’s Queen’s Plate on Saturday at Woodbine, bettors will have a similar opportunity as North America’s oldest classic race attracted 16 entries for its 159th renewal.

For FREE past performances of this year’s Queen’s Plate, CLICK HERE. For all Woodbine handicapping information, including selections, analysis, and wagering strategy, CLICK HERE.

In the aforementioned Canadian International, the winning 1-7-13-2 combo returned $3,261.99 for 20 cents from a total pool of $164,693. The top four choices were between 7-to-2 and 6-to-1 with none in the exacta but favored #13 Treasure Beach was third at 3.6-to-1 and 4th choice #2 Arctic Cosmos was 4th at 5.6-to-1.

The exacta of 22.45-to-1 #1 Sarah Lynx (10th choice) over 11.45-to-1 #7 Joshua Tree (6th choice) paid 658-to-1, so you got a 24x multiplier on the super by filling in the bottom two spots with two of the top four wagering choices.

I bring all this up because I could see history repeating itself in this year’s Queen’s Plate with half the logicals figuring to be in the number somewhere but enough longshots showing talent that it’s worth gambling on them upsetting a few of the more known candidates.

Of course, discussion of the logicals begins with trainer Mark Casse, who will saddle the likely top two choices in Plate Trial winner #10 Telekinesis and Woodbine (and Kentucky!) Oaks runner up #11 Wonder Gadot. The Sovereign Award-winning trainer also has stakes-placed Neepawa.

Wonder Gadot is probably the most reliable of the trio from a superfecta perspective in that she’s finished in the money in 10 of her 11 career races, including a current streak of 8 that features runners up finishes in the Kentucky and Woodbine Oaks. Her lifetime best Brisnet Speed Rating of 102 is tops in this field, and figuring her for a 90+ effort in the Queen’s Plate seems realistic considering she’s run well on Tapeta, gets weight from the males, and will have speed to chase.

I came into the week thinking Telekinesis might be invincible here, but a deeper dive into past performances hasn’t moved me like I thought Telekinesis would (buh-dum-ching). Brisnet has him posting Speed Ratings in the low 90s in all four starts in all four starts. Sire Ghostzapper augers well for the Queen’s Plate trip but as the favorite in a 16-horse field with plenty of speed and 6 other entrants in the 86+ range last out, I’m willing to lean on him less than his filly stablemate.

Actual Woodbine Oaks winner Dixie Moon merits respect, and as the 4-to-1 third choice on the morning line is getting it, but if the public goes all in on Casse and/or bets some others even a little bit, she could be the one who drifts, and I’m very interested at 5-to-1.

Given Telekinesis’s favoritism, I’m going to lean on the fillies as my superfecta keys.

So if those are the keys, who are the wicks to blow this baby up? From the inside out, I think #2 Cooler Mike is usable as a front-end presence who will get a ground-saving trip and can stay on at a big price. #5 Silent Poet has a big ask stretching out from 7 to 10 furlongs, but at 30-to-1 there’s enough number, pedigree, and connections power present to include. Cooler Mike and Silent Poet are two types of horses that if they crash the super I won’t care if Telekinesis wins.

Here’s how I’ll structure my tickets on a big swing play:

2, 5, 7, 10, 11 with 2, 5 with 2, 5, 7, 10, 11 with ALL ($62.40)

7, 10, 11 with 2, 5, 7, 10, 11 with 2, 5 with ALL ($46.80)

7, 10, 11 with 2, 5, 7, 10, 11 with 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16 with 2, 5 ($28.80)

7, 11 with 7, 11 with ALL with ALL ($72.80)

7, 11 with ALL with 7, 11 with ALL ($72.80)

7, 11 with ALL with ALL with 7, 11 ($72.80)

2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 14, 15, 16 with 7, 11 with 7, 11 with ALL ($41.60)

2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 14, 15, 16 with 7, 11 with ALL with 7, 11 ($41.60)

2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 14, 15, 16 with 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 14, 15, 16 with 7, 10, 11 with 7, 10, 11 ($67.20)

For those looking to play smaller, I’d just use #s 5 & 11 in all four spots (i.e. both have to hit the superfecta).