Emily Gullikson analyzes the Oaklawn Park April 15 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
Tough to find a reason for #6 CHICAGO CHROME listed as the morning line favorite here to be in position making his second start as the “horse to beat.” Connections and the class drop could draw public attention here, though in this case the class drop and changes from a debut where he did little running (C OptixGRADE) without excuse is more of a negative, than a change made to put this one where he can compete.
Many in here including Chicago Chrome, will be facing some older horses, like #2 EPIC ADVENTURE, a four-year-old, a second choice on the morning line, and a more logical type taking up a contender role in this race. He will make his fourth start of the meet here and, unlike Chicago Chrome, takes a significant and suspect drop. The change for Epic Adventure is a more logical move placing a horse where he can compete. Trainer Greg Compton will also make other subtle changes such as adding blinkers and a rider change, along with a strong position as a Quad I Square, has positive intent this afternoon.
#1 MAJESTIC DAY will make his 21st career start this afternoon and that alone is tough to have confidence with, and requires compensation with, the number on the board. Another in here that will run as an older horse with races at this maiden condition that fit within RANGE. He also carries some form this season adjusting from using a static running line shown in the standard form to accessing OptixNOTES and GRADES from the Past 3 Runlines. A similar angle for #8 KING OF THE RING as he makes his third start of the form cycle with progressive OptixFIG capable based on his prior efforts to take another step forward which would have him in RANGE this afternoon.
#5 AUNT SUNSHINE takes some creativity to make a case for and often the scenario with a “longshot” type runner. The case for her will start with her first race of the season, the race against open claiming company on Jan. 22. She showed run in spots, which projected a move forward off that race. However, she was not allowed much of a chance to compete between a slow start, far outside post and wide trip at this state-bred claiming level on Feb. 25. Connections found her a logical spot on March 23 at Delta Downs and was bet down from the morning line that day. She had legit TROUBLE stuck behind horses off the turn which caused her to lose momentum waiting in traffic and the eventual winner to make first run with Aunt Sunshine finishing in a blanket for the minors behind the open-length race winner. That series of races signals she has yet to show her “best” this season and projects more upside than how it could appear on “paper.” The other key with her cycles back to last season when she broke her maiden here at Oaklawn Park on March 24 at the $16k statebred maiden claiming level. She recorded a 76 OptixFIG for that BOS (best of the speed) open-length win. That OptixFIG (not shown on the Past 3 Runlines) has her right alongside #10 TAILORBESWIFT and #12 LUCKY EVERY DAY, the likely pair vying for favorite in this finale.