Emily Gullikson analyzes the Oaklawn Park April 22 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
#2 LAY M OUT was given a look when scheduled to make her second start of the meet back on March 12. She was set to race back at the starter allowance level, a similar class par/RANGE, from the January 30 race. She showed the ability to compete at the starter allowance level and move forward from the TRAFFIC trip and the fifth-place finish. Connections decided to not run in the March 12 starter allowance and instead took a higher optional claiming race on April 8.
Capable to improve finding the appropriate level today, she offers value as a contender. The class change here should allow for her to show a bit more tactical speed, a trip as shown on OptixPLOT tracking from Quad II. Her trip projects to stalk right off the Quad I runners, #3 JETS A GINNIN, #4 OUR MUSICAL MOMENT, #5 SWEET TATUM, and #6 ENTRUSTED making up the “Fire” contention and allow for Lay M Out, the Large Square, that required strong finishing kick to assist in the final quarter-mile.
#2 BOLD TACTICS will make her second career start with a class (GRADE/OFR) and speed (88 OptixFIG) advantage this afternoon. She made that initial start on March 14 a higher OFR (OptixFIGRANGE) of 84-78 facing older runners on debut. She ran a solid race with the B OptixGRADE, a “winning” grade for the level, and earning some key keywords with the BTL (better than looked) and a rare TWO_MOVES. That effort gives her the edge coming back today to face straight three-year-old fillies. Note the winner from March 14 came back to hold her form, finishing second with a 94 OptixFIG in higher N1X allowance company. The other runner out of that race, the fifth-place finisher, ran in a turf special weight event on April 7 at Keeneland, finishing sixth, though did improve her FIG from 73 to 87 in that turf start.