Emily Gullikson analyzes the Oaklawn Park April 28 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
A longshot case will be made for #3 IT’S BELLAMY TIME conceding he is not the most “obvious” runner in this field. This claiming condition is not always the most reliable and getting creative can be rewarding. It’s Bellamy Time showed tactical speed in first race back after 314 days contesting the pace on Feb. 5 slightly against the race flow. He picked up the IMPROVE Keyword with the wide trip against the dynamics on Feb. 25 and still has that move forward potential. He was unable to show it on April 1 against a higher claiming level nor wide the route distance (again slightly against the flow) on April 16. Is he has that move forward this could be the time and place. Also capable to key at what expects to be a price with those runners upgraded on Plot in Quad I/II.
#7 MUSIC APP comes back this afternoon from a fourth place finish as the favorite on April 9. As shown in OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines, she still recorded a B- OptixGRADE and can be upgraded as the BOS/Best of the Speed of the duel racing against the profile (X_BIAS) that favored off the pace runners. She could hold a pace advantage here, especially with the Surface/Distance PLOT.
Music App could be pressured here by the inside Asmussen runner, #2 MINER’S QUEEN, one that is below on OptixFIG and lacking stick (NO_KEEP, NO_FINISH) as the Large Quad I/III Circle. Stablemate #4 SIANARA will also look to improve here faltering as the heavy favorite in both of her races here at Oaklawn Park this season. She has yet to run a B OptixGRADE and with lacks much of an excuse in those races to date. The B OptixGRADE was posted by #3 BERRY GOOD when she met Sianara on April 10 with a clear outside tracking trip finishing together at the wire with the perfect trip winner.
The “Circles and Squares” case was made for #9 AUNT SUNSHINE on April 15 and will get a look right back off that BTL run for show. She took contact at the start (TROUBLE_S) and TROUBLE soon after clipping heels with another runner. From there she raced and made a MOVE behind and between horses and still had enough run to CLOSE on the lone winner and catching up to her on the GALLOP+ out. The trip possibly cost her a better position, if not the win. She will have to work a trip right back this afternoon and under a scenario where rival #8 TAILORBESWIFT could hold a speed and pace advantage based on her Quad I position and current OptixFIG, with the Past 3 Runlines numbers in RANGE.