RACE 5: This is a competitive race and does not offer much if any edge for the projected favorite #1 DADDY’S BOO. While she fits on speed figures and class, she becomes vulnerable here based on pace and form. As shown on OptixPLOT below she is positioned as a Square in Quad I. However, she does have Contention (Sun) as well as the higher 63 SpeedRate to impact the pace scenario and trip required for her on the front end. That pace scenario could present a challenge for #2 MY CANDY GIRL as well and one that could be seen here as the alternative choice. In addition to pace, there are form concerns for Daddy’s Boo wheeling right back in 17 days from a potentially taxing race on May 8 at Arlington Park, that effort coming first off the extended 546-day layoff with some regression here possible. This scenario could create value and opportunities with the others in this field.
Both #4 STROLLIN THE BAYOU and #6 MAD GRACE present as tracking Squares in similar positions on the Plot for both Standard (current form) and Surface/Distance. These two fit with OptixFIG in RANGE as well as class (Grades) coming out of their recent races at the Fair Grounds and Tampa Bay Downs.
#7 SPARTANKA has some upside here as well based on the OptixNOTES and Projection to IMPROVE in her current form cycle. She comes into this race on an improving OptixFIG pattern and out of some higher-level allowance races, moving her forward here on class. She has limited turf starts and they’re not the strongest of her races to date, though some excuses for those races in terms of trip and timing with three of those five starts back in her juvenile season. There has been intent for these connections to run her on the turf keying off the grass intention at the Fair Grounds, which included a scratch on Jan. 23 with the races taken off the turf. In terms of pace, cycling back to the Contention, SpeedRate, and OptixRPM with six of the eight runners sharing an E or EP RunStyle this pace scenario could set up for a C/Closer type. Spartanka should benefit with her solid late kick should a fast early pace develop and be the right price closing late from Quad IV as a surprise type in this field.