Emily Gullikson analyzes the May 5 card at Indiana Grand and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
This race become playable with a soft favorite in #3 PERUVIAN BOY lacking value returning from the April 14th win. He was a logical runner that afternoon though comes into this race off a new top, 86 OptixFIG, as he moves up in class to this N2X allowance condition. In terms of pace, he is shown in Quad IV, a normal Plot position for this runner, however with the lower SpeedRate and a rival Square with first run in #2 BYBEE, he could be left with too much on the win end.
BYBEE has the class to compete at this level coming out of his recent races at the N2X level and holding his form coming back to Indiana Grand. He has a solid record here on this main track breaking his maiden on debut back in 2019 and last season also picking up the N2L allowance win on August 13th. He ran twice at today’s N2X Optional Claiming level following that win both efforts B- OptixGRADE and pairing his OptixFIG with WIDE trips and 81 OptixFIG. His current numbers sit in RANGE as well as pace being favorable tracking as a Large Square from Quad I/II.
The lower SpeedRate was noted for Quad IV runner, Peruvian Boy, though could be a benefit to #4 STURGILL as one of two EP runners in this field and a sneaky live runner at a price. Trainer John Haran had him entered in a similar allowance on April 21st scratched out of that race perhaps the muddy conditions a factor that day and landing here instead. His form needs improvement coming out of the Oaklawn meet though capable to turn things around coming out of those higher OptixFIGRANGE (OFR) events and making his third start of the form cycle returning here to Indiana Grand. The muddy track conditions played a role in his January 24th race and pace playing a role against the flow before losing ground on March 13th. The latter race has yet to produce a next out winner, though was a strong race for the level with horses holding their form and OptixFIG.
#1 POWELL is the other EP runner in this field however shows some changes on OptixPLOT with his Standard (current form) in Quad I and the Surface/Distance in Quad II. That also indicates the bulk of his races run over the turf or synthetic and could signal this race as a prep for a turf sprint later in the meet. The position is similar for #6 FIRST DEPUTY one that looks to need some class relief, as a Circle. As shown in the Past 3 Runlines, the C OptixGRADE at this condition back on December 5th at Turfway Park and moved forward at the claiming level. #5 CHAMPAGNEONME is another that could need a drop as well and trip also factored in position in Quad IV today. Granted he has some subtle class relief coming out of the higher OFR at Oaklawn Park his current OptixFIG sit below RANGE to justify a potential shorter price.