March 27, 2023

Indiana Grand Circles & Squares Analysis for June 23

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Indiana Grand Circles & Squares

RACE 6 – Hoosier Bred Filly Sophomore Stakes

The “Green” PlotFit suggests a strong handle on the pace dynamics and shown with minimal changes from Standard to Surface/Distance. The “Fire” Contention is clear with at least half of today’s 10-horse field in Quad I/III, though light in terms of SpeedRate with most of the field below the ParLine. That lower SpeedRate can upgrade #4 TIMELESS GLORY shown as a Quad I Square on both Standard and Surface/Distance. She has upside coming into this race with a progressive pattern making her third start of the form cycle (shown on Past 3 Runlines) and has the state-bred stakes experience from last season to support her in terms of class for this event.

Even with the lower 30 SpeedRate and Quad IV position, #8 DIAMOND SOLITAIRE still fits as a legit contender and respected 5-2 morning line favorite. In terms of pace, she will have that “Fire” Contention to target with her run and shows a strong close with the size of the Square on the better finishes in this field. She has been moving forward this season in both speed (OptixFIG) and class (GRADES) as well as form especially improving out of the gate this year, something that has been an issue in the past. 

RACE 8 – Hoosier Bred Sophomore Stakes

The lighter “Green” PlotFit is a slight change from Race 6 and shown with changes from the Standard to Surface/Distance as well as lacking data with the “Diamond” runners on that Plot. Those changes are more significant with the impact to the “Fire” Contention and especially that higher 56 SpeedRate. It is a contrast comparing these two stakes races as SpeedRate projects to impact the dynamics, a faster early pace with the increased number of horses above the Par Line in this event. That dynamic could be a major hurdle for the two expected favorites, #1 NOBODY LISTENS one of those “Diamonds” as well as #7 A FEW TOO MANY as a Circle on Surface/Distance. In addition to pace, both runners show “Red Keywords” in their Past 3 Runlines suggestive of negative form to add to their vulnerability in this spot. #8 SKY JUDGE could also fall victim to the race dynamic as a Circle in Quad I making his first start at a route of ground and another with “Red” in his Past 3 Runlines.

#2 LOOKIN AT JUSTICE can be upgraded on Surface/Distance as well as some subtle form in the Past 3 Runlines. He has some class from last season in the state-bred stakes with the place finish (B- OptixGRADE) in the Hillsdale Stakes as well as the win in the Indiana Futurity with an 81 OptixFIG to close out 2020. He has been able to change his running style as well as an “every other” pattern of races which impact his position on the Plot. He has the positive form to improve from the May 20th turf race and wide trip in that form cycle pattern as well as positive Quad I Square Surface/Distance position to compete here. As suggested by the 15-1 morning line, the compensation should be there for those projections.

#4 SUDDEN SHIFT is another that holds some more subtle form coming into this race from his Past 3 Runlines and upgraded on OptixPLOT as a Square on both Standard and Surface/Distance. This will be his first route race of the season, though holds a similar pattern of sprint-to-route races from last year. He was able to race himself into shape with the sprint races and moved forward with the foundation by the time he was stretched out to a route of ground. That progression produced a B+ OptixGRADE to break his maiden and carried into the Indiana Futurity with the place finish, B- OptixGRADE, and seasonal top 73 OptixFIG. His OptixFIG are a bit light compared to some of the others in this field though the progression, foundation, and route distance could be the equalizer and again looks to be compensated with the morning line and with the attention given to those “faster” horses.

#9 HARD LUCK JUSTICE can be upgraded as well with the consistent Square position on the Plot. His has also been able to progress this season coming into this race without the “Red” in his current form and improving OptixFIG pattern. He finished behind the pair of Lookin At Justice and Sudden Shift with the C+ OptixGRADE in the Indiana Futurity and will have to improve from that class perspective, though has the right Plot position to key around for exotics.