November 27, 2021

Indiana Grand Circles & Squares Analysis for Aug. 4

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Indiana Grand Circles & Squares

Race 8 – Indiana First Lady S.

The “Yellow” PlotFit suggests “caution” assessing the race shape and notable changes from Standard (current form) and Surface/Distance. That said, there are minimal changes in terms of Contention with a congested Quad I and “Fire” rating.

The 5-2 morning line favorite, #3 PEARL TIARA, is part of that Quad I mix and could be vulnerable under today’s dynamics. She is shown as a Square on both Standard and Surface/Distance, a benefit even with the Contention given the lower 19 SpeedRate.

In terms of class, she ran a B+ OptixGRADE in the Hoosier Breeders’ Sophomore S. and earned an 88 OptixFIG, a number above today’s FIGRANGE. In terms of form, that 88 OptixFIG was a new top and according to the “OTHER” Keyword in OptixNOTES, Pearl Tiara benefited from the course profile, racing forwardly placed on the day. She finished all out flipping leads (NO LEAD), with mild drifting despite being clear late. She visually looked tired coming back to get her picture taken, suggesting she could require time to recover from the effort. Pearl Tiara has been given 42 days since that stakes win, though will have to be ready to run another top effort today with the Contention, and that could open up the race to others in this field.

#1 DIAMOND SOLITAIRE fits as a legit contender and today’s race shape as a Large Square with some positional speed at Surface/Distance. Her form coming into this race is solid, she lacks “Red Keywords” in her Past 3 Runlines, and she has the positive “green” B OptixGRADE and BTL, even with the fifth-place finish on the turf in the Ellen’s Lucky Star S.

#6 RUSSIAN INFLUENCE could also find the right trip with today’s race dynamics based on her position in Quad II. She does have some challenges as she will give up recency to others in this field coming off the 260-day layoff in her seasonal debut. As shown in the Past 3 Runlines, her OptixFIG current sit below FIGRANGE though could see, and will have to show, improvement here with those numbers recorded in the juvenile season. There looks to be positive intent from the connections coming off the layoff and returning in this spot. Pedroza remains aboard this afternoon and that is noted as he was aboard others in this field coming off recent wins. Her stablemate #10 TIMELESS GLORY is cross-entered in an allowance Tuesday, though could be upgraded here keying off the “IMPROVE” in the Hoosier Breeders’ Sophomore, especially given the 20-1 morning line.

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