Wednesday’s race is the Circles & Squares from Sept. 22, the day the races were canceled due to weather. This race was redrawn with just one addition, #4 KOJO’S QUEEN, who should have minimal impact on the race shape as a Quad II Circle. This OptixPLOT highlights a “Fire” Contention and a lower SpeedRate, a tricky pace scenario with an “extreme” race shape potential.
The Contention is “Fire” with five of the eight runners positioned in Quad I. The SpeedRate, however, is a lower 13 as #6 JOY IN THE JOURNEY is the lone runner above the Par Line. That suggests the pace does not have to be “fast” despite the Contention. Joy in the Journey is the even-money morning-line favorite in this race and assessing her in that role, she does not hold a strong edge to support her at that shorter price, while she is capable – a soft favorite.
#1 CUPP OF CLASS will be upgraded as the lone Quad I Square. She is capable of showing tactical, positional speed in that Plot position. The Square indicates her finishing ability is stronger than her rivals that project to take up a similar style trip. Her form cycle is also positive as she looks to improve on what is currently an “every other” pattern with those stronger races and OptixFIG at this six-furlong distance.
#8 WHERETHEMONEYWENT can be upgraded on Surface/Distance as a Quad II Square and holds upside remaining at the sprint distance making her third start of the cycle. Class-wise she will have to improve as this is a step up in class and requires compensation to play with that necessary projection.
#5 THIRST TRAP will also require compensation from the deeper closing Large Square in a Quad IV position, though she is not without a chance. She will have the Contention to make her closing run and could stay closer in contact with the field if the pace is not especially “fast” early on. She has OptixFIG and form that stack up on RANGE for this race on her better days. She could find that here coming back off a slight break and if aided by that race shape.