Today’s race is back to a “Green” PlotFit where horses align on the diagonal and there are minimal changes on Surface/Distance. Assessing pace becomes more straightforward on OptixPLOT, and that information will be utilized to assess the favorite. The “Fire” Contention and honest 34 SpeedRate are backed up visually with about half of the field in Quad I or to the left of the y-axis, which includes the likely race favorites, #1 CHANDANA and #7 CHAKRA.
#1 CHANDANA is positioned favorably in Quad I as a Large Square and able to save ground from the inside post, checking the boxes as far as pace. Looking at Past 3 Runlines, her OptixFIG sit in RANGE and lack Red Keywords, again checking the boxes on Speed. Moving on to form, she earned a career top 96 OptixFIG in her statebred allowance win just three weeks ago and some regression could be in play off that effort and timing. Since that race, she was entered in another statebred allowance race on Oct. 20 and was a vet scratch that day to suggest taking this spot against open company could be a “back-up plan.” That has to be considered as the scratched race was at her preferred 5 1/2-furlong distance and this spot is a step up in class comparing the OptixFIGRANGE (OFR) from Oct. 11 at 83-75 to today’s 88-80. She is capable, though there is enough to create some reservations at a shorter price to look elsewhere.
#7 CHAKRA has similar challenges as she will step up in class off the Perfect win coming back off a 119-day layoff and returning here in just 19 days. The six-furlong distance is also noted, as she tends to have a preference for slightly shorter. Under today’s Surface/Distance conditions she would tend to require a pace advantage, but she does not hold any strong edge over others as a Quad I Circle.
#6 VERRY AMELIA could find the right trip stalking as a Quad II/IV Square, her regular Plot Position. She has upside in her form cycle as she is cycling back around after the HARD (taxing effort) to win on Aug. 18. She holds upside exiting the Oct. 12 race with the poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and some positive intent off that race as regular rider Sanjur will be back aboard today.
#9 AZURITA sits in a similar position on OptixPLOT and has some upside off her races this season to turn in a top run today. She tends to prefer six furlongs, and for today’s race shape, the subtle change in distance could be key. Her stablemate #3 LADY GUSTO is the lone closer as a Large Square in Quad IV. She will be running on late and capable to improve (PREP) in her second start off the layoff, though will also require running a top effort and the right pace and timing for her run at this sprint distance.