CIRCLES AND SQUARES – INDIANA GRAND 11-11-2021
RACE 3: Today’s race is back to a “Yellow” PlotFit, a scenario that requires some interpretation as the race shape (pace) is not straight forward. In this case, there are minimal changes from Standard to Surface/Distance though some subtle potentially significant changes. Outside of the PlotFit, the Contention has a “Sun” rating with four of the 10 in Quad I and paired with a higher 60 SpeedRate with the majority of the field positioned to the left of the y-axis and above the Par Line.
This is not the most ideal Plot to assess pace, though as a race presents an event where value can be found with the “Yellow” and with subtle knocks on horses that project to get the most public support.
That starts with the 5-2 morning line favorite, #5 OCELIA coming off a Perfect win and top 81 OptixFIG earned in her most recent start winning as a Main Track Only entrant in an off-the-turf race. That effort fits on repeat in today’s OptixFIGRANGE, however this will be a step up in class according the OFR change today.
The higher SpeedRate and Contention of today’s race can allow for a trip from Quad IV, though in terms of value, Ocelia does not offer much especially with #2 TO FAT TO FISH in a similar position with a Larger Square. To Fat to Fish holds upside coming into this race according to the OptixNOTES shown in the Past 3 Runlines. The pattern of slow starts (SLOG) is an issue and requires compensation, something that projects to be there with the 15-1 morning line. Similar compensation is expected and required for #9 SECOND EXCHANGE. She could be upgraded based on the Plot position similar to Ocelia, though in terms of OptixFIG (Speed) is slightly light for the RANGE and compared to others, though has some select races that could compete here on her best day.
#4 TRAUMARAMA is tough to knock looking at the Plot as she should find a favorable trip tracking the Quad I/III runners with first run from Quad II and with finishing (Square) ability. She earned an 82 OptixFIG in her most recent start, a number that fits in RANGE. The challenge for her will be transferring her form back to the Indiana Grand main track, something she has struggled to do in the most recent racing seasons and likely part of the reason this Indiana-bred has spent her time racing out of town. #10 RUNNINAWAYWITHIT finds a similar Standard position as a Quad II Square though a downgrade shifting to a Circle on Surface/Distance, that change would require some value compensation.
On Surface/Distance, #7 MYERS TIGER can be upgraded as a Quad I Square and in that Plot position holds a scenario where she could be a threat gate-to-wire. The same type of compensation is required as she would need that Surface/Distance scenario to compete and finds a different Standard (current form) dynamic. Her stablemate, #3 SENTIMENTAL JOURNEY does not standout on the Plot though has some trips (OptixNOTES) this season that are impacting her position and shape. In terms of class, she will find the proper level today (DROP) exiting a higher level allowance race going first off the claim back on October 20th. A “longshot” case can be made for her as she could be dismissed by the public and capable to improve in this second start of the form cycle. She holds race from earlier this season with OptixFIG in RANGE and capable to get back to those efforts with this class and distance change. Running back to those races from earlier this season, races where she was a Square, Sentimental Journey should have first run on those more “obvious” rivals, Ocelia and Traumarama and could “trip” based on Surface/Distance Plot position.