#3 MOONSHINE VISION is worth a longshot look, returning here as part of the group from the March 12 common race. Going back to earlier this season, he showed run making a WIDE MOVE in his Jan. 1 debut, and with the ability to IMPROVE off that first start was unable to get that chance given an EX- EXCUSE on Jan. 22 as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. He was freshened off that race, returning off the 49-day break and the route debut in that March 13 event. The outside post again played a role and the rider that afternoon was unable to overcome the draw (TACTIC-) and slow start (SLOG) with another WIDE trip placing Moonshine Vision under a hold and not asking for much run. The connections will return today with a rider change to Jon Court; that change can be seen as a positive in this case with the back-to-back TACTIC- Keywords and looking for a better trip for this horse to try to compete.
Both #4 LUCKS BIG BOY and #7 JACKS SPRING BREAK are logical types with OptixFIG in RANGE and showing up with a tactical advantage as shown with Squares in Quad I. That position gives that pair the edge over #8 BOTANY at this point, shown as a Quad I Circle. Botany could still present upside as a lightly raced type that lacks “Red” Keywords, though as he is listed as the 5-2 second choice on the morning line, overall value could be questionable. #6 CYBERTOWN could join that first flight as he makes his route debut (Surface/Distance Diamond), adding the blinkers and stretching out in distance for his second career start.
#5 RIANTE SKY is tough to make a case for as a win contender, though not as tough as the six-year-old #2 SLIGHTLY CRAFTY, making his 35th career start today. Riante Sky though will STRETCH back out in distance today and as a Quad II/IV Square to create some value underneath. #1 TAPPED OUT is another that will find a rider change as he returns for this third start of the meet. The seven-pound weight allowance apprentice, Erick Medellin, has found success here at Oaklawn Park and could be the adjustment Tapped Out requires as a horse that has shown run in spots to move forward.
McLean Robertson will bring back #6 TURN THE SWITCH for his second start off the layoff and of the meet. For a horse that has spent the majority of his career around two-turns, he was likely given the race back on March 13 at the sprint distance to help him begin his campaign off a 252-day layoff. As far as that race itself, Turn the Switch did have some TROUBLE and TRAFFIC adversity, while showing run after moving into the clear – run that is not necessarily easy to see in the running line and finishing position. His running style should suit today’s race dynamic, looking at OptixPLOT where Turn the Switch is shown as a Quad I Square. He should be able to sit right off the Circle (lack of finish) #7 ALPINE GHOST and have first run on his main rivals, #4 STRIKE A BEAT and #5 DOC IRWIN.