June 29, 2022

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for March 26

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares


This race starts by assessing #3 TEZ a legitimate top three contender as he fits on speed (OptixFIG), Class (OptixGRADE), Form (lacking Red Keywords in Past 3 Runlines) and pace with a favorable Plot position as a Quad II Large Square. As far as the Plot, #4 LNGTERMRELATIONSHP sits in a similar Quad II position, though his finishing ability is not quite as strong, though still present, as a Square. Aside from the Plot, there is a class edge for Lngtermrelationshp as he will race today at the lowest level of his career and with that drop, the intention from Moquett, placing this one where he can win in his second start off the layoff. That positive intent includes a rider change back to David Cabrera, his win rider from last season.

As far as looking at this race for the exotics, the vertical wagers, the lower Speed Rate upgrades runners in Quad I: #6 ARRIVAL and #11 BLUERIDER TRAVELER, as they should be able to hold their speed into the final 1/4 and the pace advantage in this scenario over the Quad IV horses #2 EGOMANIAC, #7 GENERATOR and #8 REVENIO that will be running on late. #1 HAMAZING WISDOM is another exotic consideration, as one that could just save ground with some positional speed and finishing ability shown as the Quad III Square, though softer overall for the top two spots.

#12 FOXY ACE lacks the value as the 4-1 second choice on the morning line with the inclusion of Tez as the favorite and one to try and get out of the top three spots. Foxy Ace does not hold any pace advantage as a Quad I/III Circle and sits below on speed, class, or form in the Past 3 Runlines in this scenario to include at a shorter price over others. There should be a significant shift on the board with #9 TROPHY DADDY, one that also lacks those same overall advantages and is shown in a similar Plot position.

The “Red” PlotFit shows some changes on Surface/Distance when looking at the position for #5 C H JAY and #10 JUDGE PHILLIP. These two shift closer towards Quad I on Surface/Distance and play a role in that “Sun” Contention rating. Current form and excessive layoff lines on C H Jay are tough to support in today’s race. Those same considerations apply for Judge Phillip, however he does find some changes as the blinkers will be added this afternoon and does show two decent published works since the February 19th race to suggest a potential move forward as he makes his second start of this form cycle.

RACE 10:

Some value is required on #7 DEPART given his history of gate issues (SLOG) that are a liability with any race horse. With that said, he has a share of positives coming into this race for trainer Allen Milligan as his third start off the layoff. He is showing improving OptixFIG in the Past 3 Runlines as well as his form with the IMPROVE? Keyword Projection on March 12th. In that race two weeks ago, Depart rallied with a sneaky close to finish in a blanket for show, something that is not obvious when looking at the running line and fifth place finishing position on its own. Class is also a major change for Depart as he exits the open company, higher OptixFIGRANGE events, to run for the first time this season at the statebred level.