FIRST
TURN
OCTOBER 22
Searching for value
by James Scully
Top contenders are easy to identify, but longshots will be
part of the trifecta in most Breeders’ Cup races. This column
will take a look at a couple value plays in each race except the
Juvenile (G1).
Distaff
INDY GROOVE (A.P. Indy) hails from the shedrow of Tom Proctor,
who trained One Dreamer to a 47-1 upset in the 1994 Distaff (G1),
and the speedy four-year-old filly will enter this year’s event
on the upswing. She displayed a lot of promise at two, placing in
a couple of graded races at Del Mar, before being sidelined for
nearly 18 months.
Indy Groove didn’t show a whole lot against allowance rivals
when returning to the races earlier this season, but she recorded
a fine third to Adoration in the Arlington Matron H. (G3) two
starts back and then rolled to a 3 1/4-length triumph in the
Autumn Leaves S. at Mountaineer Park, earning a 105 BRIS Speed
rating. She faces a stiff class hike, but most of her rivals have
been far from consistent this season. The chestnut miss is coming
to hand for a dangerous Breeders’ Cup conditioner and might offer
a challenge for the top three with a career-best performance.
ELLOLUV (Gilded Time) finished second in last year’s Distaff
at 8-1 and will probably be a higher price at Lone Star. A
multiple Grade 1 winner, the four-year-old turned in lackluster
performances to finish sixth in each of her first two starts in
2004, but she’s really turned things around since then for
conditioner Craig Dollase, winning the Piedra Foundation H. prior
to a close third in the Lady’s Secret Breeders’ Cup H. (G2). The
classy Elloluv is finding her best form at the right time of the
year.
Juvenile Fillies
SHARP LISA (Dixieland Band) doesn’t own a stakes victory and
probably won’t be one of the top four betting choices in the
Juvenile Fillies (G1), but she must be respected for it all. A
sharp 6 1/2-length debut winner at Calder in September, the
chestnut lass was then sold to new connections and made her
second career start in the Alcibiades S. (G2), narrowly missing
by a head after racing wide and bit greenly down the stretch.
Sharp Lisa ran a huge race despite her lack of seasoning and
is eligible to take a big step forward in the Juvenile Fillies at
a good price.
PLAY WITH FIRE (Boundary) doesn’t look like much of a win
threat, but the dark bay filly offered a strong late run for
second in the Matron S. (G1) two starts back and then kicked into
gear too late in the Frizette S. (G1) last time, making up a lot
of ground to be fourth by 3 3/4 lengths. The Mark Hennig charge
has gained valuable seasoning while facing top-class rivals in
all three starts since winning her career debut and could come
running late for part once again.
Mile
The Mile (G1) is one of the most competitive races of the day,
and SINGLETARY (Sultry Song) is perhaps the top miler from the
West Coast. The four-year-old could challenge for the win at a
large mutuel.
Horses who run well on the grass at Hollywood Park have been
highly successful over the turf at Lone Star, and Singletary
displayed a fondness for the Hollywood lawn with a stellar
runner-up finish in the Shoemaker Breeders’ Cup Invitational Mile
(G1) back in May. Trainer Donald Chatlos freshened his charge
after that performance and pointed toward the Breeders’ Cup,
prepping in the Oak Tree Breeders’ Cup Mile (G2). Singletary was
wide throughout last time and just missed by a head with a game
showing. Look for significant improvement in his second start
back.
ANTONIUS PIUS (Danzig) was a Group 3 winner last season for
Aidan O’Brien and ran big two races back when third in the Prix
du Moulin (Fr-G1) at Longchamp. He missed by only a length to the
well-regarded Azamour (Night Shift) when third in the St. James’s
Palace S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot and if one believes that the
Europeans are better than the American-based turf horses this
year, Antonius Pius has the class to be a serious factor in the
Mile.
Sprint
CHAMPALI (Glitterman) was overlooked at 4-1 in the Phoenix
Breeders’ Cup (G3) and will likely be overlooked at double-digit
odds in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). He’s got the Speed ratings
to win and is a confirmed six-furlong specialist. There’s a lot
to like about his chances.
The Greg Foley-trained four-year-old earned a 113 Speed figure
when capturing the Smile Sprint H. (G3) and a 110 for the
Phoenix. He owns a 4-1-2 mark from seven starts at six furlongs.
Champali has also won four of his last five races. Watch out for
this Rodney Dangerfield candidate.
CUVEE (Carson City) ran the opening quarter of the six-furlong
Matt Winn S. in :20 3/5 and went in :21 2/5 when blazing the way
early in the Kentucky Cup Sprint (G3) last out. He finished
second both times and is eligible to keep showing more in his
third start this year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Cuvee is the
speed of the speed in the Sprint, and he might hang around a lot
longer than many anticipate.
Filly & Mare Turf
MOSCOW BURNING (Moscow Ballet) took the Sheepshead Bay H. (G2)
at the Filly & Mare Turf (G1) distance and showed good form
earlier this year winning the Fran’s Valentine S. and finishing
second in the Beverly Hills H. (G2), both at Hollywood Park. The
four-year-old miss placed a close third against males two starts
back in the Del Mar H. (G2) and missed by only three parts of a
length in the Flower Bowl Invitational S. (G1) last time.
The James Cassidy trainee is an attractive value play because
she seems to never turn in a bad effort and relishes the
Breeders’ Cup distance.
STAY FOREVER (Stack) closed powerfully to win the
Galaxy S. (G2) in her last start and is going very well right now
for conditioner Martin Wolfson, posting a 3-1-0 mark from her
last four outings with Late Pace numbers of 113 and 108. She’s
the type who could come barreling late for a slice of the
exotics.
Juvenile
The Juvenile features a well-matched field of eight and not
much separates the top five contenders.
Turf
MUSTANFAR (Unbridled) faces a stiff class hike in the Turf
(G1), but the three-year-old colt has found a home on the turf
and turned in a dynamic run through the stretch to roll past
older rivals in the 1 1/2-mile Sycamore Breeders’ Cup S. (G3)
last out, drawing off to a three-length decision while earning a
101 Speed and 108 Late Pace figures. Trained by Kiaran
McLaughlin, Mustanfar has finished first or second in last four
turf starts against stakes rivals and appears to thrive on longer
distances. He’ll enter the Breeders’ Cup on the upswing and can
be included in the exotics.
SARAFAN (Lear Fan) will bring commendable present form into
the Turf for conditioner Neil Drysdale, recording century-topping
Late Pace numbers for his last three starts (a win and two
seconds) at marathon distances. The seven-year-old owns good
tactical speed and should be in position to challenge for part at
the top of the stretch.
Classic
FANTASTICAT (Storm Cat) will move up on a wet track and
enters the Classic (G1) off a sterling win in the Super Derby
(G2). A late blossoming three-year-old for trainer Bobby Barnett,
Fantasticat is a strong closer, earning century-topping Late Pace
ratings from five of his last six starts, and earned a
career-best 104 Speed rating in his last start. He’s well suited
for 10 furlongs with his pedigree and looks like a live candidate
for the bottom of the gimmicks with his improving form.
NEWFOUNDLAND (Storm Cat) earned a 112 Speed rating finishing a
close second in the 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), and the
lack of speed in the Classic field enhances the early runner’s
chances of turning in a commendable performance. Trainer Todd
Pletcher should have the four-year-old cranked up for his best,
and Newfoundland could go a long way.