Dogwood BC

TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS

Nine sophomore fillies have been entered for Saturday’s Dogwood Breeders’ Cup
S. (G3) at Churchill Downs, including Golden Rod S. (G2) heroine RUNWAY MODEL (Petionville),
but we’re going to search for a little more value and go with the improving
CAROLINE’S GOLD (Touch Gold), who will make her stakes debut in the Dogwood
after winning going away in her only start of the year, a first-level allowance
race over this surface. The Dale Romans trainee has never gone farther than
Keeneland’s about-seven furlong Beard Course, but the dark bay won her 2005
debut by five lengths and is bred to run all day. Watch for Caroline’s Gold to
come running late at a nice price under Mark Guidry.

Runway Model has made her last seven starts at the Grade 1 or 2 level and is
easily the class of the field. She has not missed the board in five career
starts at the 1 1/16-mile Dogwood distance and will be tough to beat in this
spot having won under the Twin Spires twice. The dark bay did not place in the Kentucky
Oaks (G1) or the Black-Eyed Susan S. (G2) in her last two, but she was running against the best fillies in the country and will not face that same
level of competition here.

CULINARY (El Amante) has just one start on the year, that one coming being a fourth-place finish after a five-wide move in
the La Troienne S. (G3) at Churchill. In four career starts, the gray has not caught a good
trip yet, being hung out wide on both turns of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Fillies (G1), three wide when taking the one-mile Arlington-Washington Lassie S.
(G3) and even four wide in her career debut, a one-mile maiden event which she
won by 11 lengths. With the right trip, Culinary could close like a monster to
take it all.

GALLANT SECRET (Menifee) ran a surprising third in the Kentucky Oaks (G1)
last out after hopping at the start. The bay has placed in three other stakes
events this year and appears in good form for James Jackson, and we’ll have to
use her in the gimmicks based on her Oaks run at 43-1.

KOTA (Indian Charlie) ran second in her Dogwood prep, a May 26 allowance at
Churchill. The Bob Holthus trainee won the Anne M. Fisher Debutante S. last year
but does not appear to enjoy visiting the winner’s circle, consistently
finishing second or third (eight times from 11 career starts). We’ll have her
in the bottom of the gimmicks.

In her first start for new trainer John Ward, MISS MATCHED (Formal Gold) ran
a nice second after a horrific start in the Spinaway S. (G2). The dark bay set
the pace and then weakened in the 1 1/16-mile Alcibiades S. (G2) in her next
start, suggesting she may prefer shorter distances. In her last two she has won
a pair of six-furlong events, but we’ll have to watch as Miss Matched stretches
back out. SHE’S THAT CAT (American Chance) enters in similar fashion as Culinary
in that she has not run the Dogwood distance, but she does not share her back
class. We’ll let the bay beat us in her two-turn debut.

The Carl Nafzger-trained ATLAS VALLEY (Capote) shows a record of
6-2-3-0 with her only off-the-board finish coming in the Florida Oaks earlier
this year. The bay miss won an allowance over this surface and distance last out, but
she may need a start against these. STEAL THE SHOW (Cat Thief) may be
ambitiously placed and we’ll just watch for now.