HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 13, 2005
by Dick Powell
Polytrack is coming and it’s coming fast. The synthetic racing surface is the
main talking point in horse racing circles as tracks attempt to keep horses
sounder so that they can run more often.
With the national foal crop size staying level, field size per race is still
dropping since more trainers today believe that their horses need more time
between races. A kinder, gentler racing surface will supposedly permit horses to
race and train with less wear and tear on their limbs, joints and soft tissue so
that they will need less time to recover and be able to get back on the
racetrack sooner.
Polytrack was installed this year for Turfway Park’s September meet and the
industry held its collective breath. There was a larger, higher spray from the
horses’ kickback than expected but that can be fixed with a different
maintenance program. Horses were scoped endoscopically after races and they
seemed none the worse for the wear.
Riders claimed that they only needed one pair of goggles since the ersatz
material hardly stuck to them. Most horsemen raved about the soundness of their
horses coming out of races. Patrick Biancone loved it so much that he stabled
many of his Breeders’ Cup horses there to train even after the meet ended.
The first few days of the Turfway September meet was marred by a horsemen’s
dispute that saw a very light entry box the first few days. This was rectified
quickly, but total betting on Turfway’s races was down for the meet nearly 10
percent. It took a while to see how the track was playing, or not playing since
most days there was not a discernible bias. Turf horses seemed to grab a hold of
it very well, but there did not seem to be any pronounced bias for running
styles.
Turfway is now running its winter meet and this is where Polytrack should
provide major dividends. The victim of nasty winter weather conditions each
year, Turfway has been marred by numerous cancellations. Last year alone there
were 11 cancellations. Polytrack, if maintained correctly, will not
freeze since moisture drains through it. The only cancellations at Turfway this
meet will come from weather conditions that make it too dangerous to travel to
the track.
Keeneland is going to install Polytrack next summer and have it ready for
their meet in October. Woodbine is going to have it next summer as well and
switch their main track racing to a re-surfaced harness track that is seven
furlongs long — think Sportsman’s Park. Many other tracks, including all California tracks, look like they are ready to pull the trigger in a year or
two. If the New York Racing Association had the money, they would install it on
the Aqueduct inner dirt track or maybe go all the way and install it on the main
track.
Besides Polytrack there are other synthetic racing and training surfaces,
including the Tapeta System that Michael Dickinson has developed at his farm in
Maryland where horses like Da Hoss (Gone West) and A Huevo (Cool Joe) were able
to return off incredibly long layoffs and win major Grade 1 races.
Having already been accepted in Europe as a training and racing surface, it will be
interesting to see if the presence of Polytrack in America will mean more
European shippers attempting to win our major main track races.
It’s safe to assume that business will be up dramatically at Turfway, but will
we handicappers embrace the racing there? A consistent racing surface may be
great for the horses, but many of us look for angles based on large variances
in track conditions, and we might not get them. We don’t always want a level playing
field; sometimes, we want a speed horse on a track that is favoring speed.
And, we are all going to have to adjust our thinking with regard to running
times that are amazingly slow. Recently, there was a 1 1/16-mile event that went
in 1:53. For many races over six furlongs, the running times seem to be for
distances a sixteenth of a mile less.
So far at the Winter Meet, every race has been contested on a track that was
listed as “fast.” While this may appeal to track management who believe that
bettors wager more money on tracks that are listed as “fast” rather than those that are
not, it might make it harder to handicap. Even though moisture is supposed to
drain right through it leaving a “fast” track, how are we handicappers to know
if it was raining during a night’s races? Will there be differences in Polytrack’s performance when it gets wet in terms of running times?
Will there be more kickback or spray when the track is dry? If the track
needs to be watered to reduce the kickback, will it then favor horses in front?
All these questions are unanswerable until we have more evidence, and until then
they make it hard to bet the Turfway Park races with any degree of confidence.
Yes, Turfway is just one track that is using Polytrack, but it might make
sense to pay attention to it to have a head start when the other tracks
mentioned install it.
*****
Here’s an interesting one. Last Friday, December 9, NYRA canceled racing at
Aqueduct in anticipation of a nasty snow/ice storm that was forecasted to begin
early that morning. Unfortunately, when what would have been post time for the
1ST race came around, it was not snowing and the temperature was
above freezing.
In years past when bad weather hit, or was about to hit, racing officials
would huddle early in the morning to decide if racing would be conducted. But
now, with the five-hour detention barn scenario at Aqueduct in effect, decisions
on whether to race or not have to be made a lot earlier.
Imagine if you are a trainer stationed out of town and have entered to race
at Aqueduct. Weather is always a risk, but this is a risky game anyway so you
take your chances. But because of the detention barn timetable that requires you
to be present and accounted for five hours before your race, you might have to
leave at midnight to get there in time to check in if your horse drew into a
race early on the card.
Now, you have doubled your risk. Do I ship there and find out racing will be
canceled after I get there and still have to pay shipping costs and extra labor
for the detention barn? On days when NYRA cancels the day before, it might save
you a wasted trip. But NYRA is now going to have an unknown factor to consider when
making the decision to race or cancel. The fact that they have to make it
earlier than ever means a greater likelihood that Friday’s scenario might be
repeated.