Pedigree Handicapping

Last updated: 1/12/06 5:44 PM

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

JANUARY 13, 2006

Ten ‘A’ turf sires for handicappers to profit from in 2006

by Tim Holland

One of the most valuable assets a horseplayer can own is the ability to spot
potential overlays, and one method that can be successful comes through following
stallions and finding ones whose progeny continually overachieve when raced on
the turf. Even many novice players are aware of the merits of many of the top
stallions, limiting their usefulness in regard to finding value. However, with
the help of the recently published 2006 edition of the Brisnet Sire Stats book
and some additional research, astute handicappers are able to isolate less
well-known sires who may be profitable to follow.

Last year’s leading Californian turf sire, UNUSUAL HEAT (Nureyev), is a good
example. Even though he was rated “A+” at the start of the year, eight of his 34
turf winners in 2005 were largely ignored at the betting windows, returning more
than $20 for each $2 win wager, including a $72 payout for Sweet Gazelle at Del
Mar; $44 for Master Heat’s Santa Anita victory; and a $52 return on Hot Grip at
Hollywood Park.

Being by Nureyev, who is also the sire of top turf stallion Theatrical (Ire), and
out of a Scandinavian champion who also won the Flower Bowl H (G1), Unusual Heat
has every right, pedigree-wise, to make a top stallion. His racing career began
in Ireland, where, hindered by unsuitably soft ground, his best finish was a
second in a Group 2 event. After missing his five-year-old season, Unusual Heat
was sent to California at six where he showed ability for Richard Mandella
before being claimed for $80,000 by trainer Barry Abrams. Unfortunately, he
bowed a tendon two starts later while putting up his best stateside performance,
a wire-to-wire victory at Hollywood Park.

After some efforts to sell him did not materialize, Abrams and partner
Madelaine Auerbach decided to stand Unusual Heat themselves. They bred him to
their own mares and raced his offspring. As a result of his success, Unusual
Heat’s stud fee has risen from $3,500 to $12,500 in 2006, and he’s being bred to
better mares. His best runners to date have been Clement Hirsch H (G2) winner
Tucked Away, California Cup Mile victor Lennyfromalibu and the Grade 2-placed
Juliesugardaddy, and one has to assume that more success is to come in the
future.

BERTRANDO (Skywalker) and IN EXCESS (Ire) (Siberian Express) are two other
California-based stallions who have been profitable to follow on the turf.
Neither owned a pedigree necessary to entice top class mares when they entered
stud, but both were multiple Grade 1 winners possessing an abundance of early
speed. Even though both have been rated “A” Turf sires for the last three years, the
betting public often overlooks their runners on the grass.

For example, last year Bertrando sired Strategically, who won a minor Turf
Paradise stakes at odds of more than 25-1, and Kresgeville, the 30-1 winner of
Hollywood Park’s Manhattan Beach S. Both winners were cutting back to less than
a mile on the turf for the first time, and so did Exceeding, a son of In Excess
who took a stakes at Bay Meadows last September and returned $27. While the
offspring of these two stallions should be watched at any distance on the turf,
one must pay close attention when they run in grass sprints.

While stallion stats are generally reliable for older sires with many
runners, it pays to use caution when dealing with horses who are represented by
three or fewer crops. That is the case for another California sire, PERFECT
MANDATE, a sprint stakes-placed son of the established sire of sires, Gone West.
Last year, while standing at the same farm as Unusual Heat, Perfect Mandate
finished 45th in the overall third crop sire list while represented by only 20
runners. He earned an “A” turf rating by virtue of his 2005 runners winning more
than 25 percent of their turf starts. Even though this is from a small sample,
the rating is deserved when one considers that his record includes a first,
second and third in stakes races via three different horses.

With Perfect Mandate being bred for speed and his best runner being the
sprint stakes-winning filly Tempting Date, one might assume that his offspring
could have distance limitations. However, a son from his first crop, Perfect
Mode, stands in contrast to that notion, displaying plenty of stamina to be
second over 1 1/2 miles in the Quickentree S at Hollywood Park last summer.

“A” rated turf sires with upset sprint successes are not limited to
California. Another good example is Florida’s leading turf sire of 2005,
CONCORDE’S TUNE (Concorde Bound). A stakes-winning sprinter, Concorde’s Tune
does not own a pedigree associated with top stallions but has nevertheless sired
17 stakes winners to-date from eight crops to race, with many paying healthy
mutuels. In June 2005, his daughter Lakes Tune won Monmouth’s Crankitup S. at
17-1 over five furlongs in her turf debut, and his son, Marley’s Revenge, had
only one turf try to his credit when he won the 5 1/2-furlong Taylor’s Special S.
at Arlington in 2004, paying more than $44.

Meanwhile, other progeny of Concorde’s Tune have managed to win by carrying
their speed to route success. Mr. Silver, a promising three-year-old this
season, captured the 8 1/2-furlong Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf S. last fall
at Calder, and Tune of the Spirit won a 1 1/16-mile event at 51-1 odds at
Delaware the year before. As with the offspring of In Excess and Bertrando,
progeny of Concorde’s Tune should not be overlooked when making their first or
second turf tries, especially in sprints or when they could be the controlling
speed in turf routes.

WILD EVENT (Wild Again) also stands in Florida and won six graded turf
routes, including the 1999 Early Times Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs. As
well as possessing tactical speed, Wild Event sports top bloodlines as a
half-brother to turf champion Paradise Creek and, more importantly, is out of a
three-quarter sister to Theatrical. With 14 of his 33 turf runners in 2005
proving successful, and five of those returning more than $20 on a $2 wager,
Wild Event is another whose progeny bear watching. Recognizing Wild Event’s
runners early in their route turf careers can pay big dividends. Lady’s Event
($55) at Calder and Heza Wild Guy ($51) at Tampa were a couple examples last
season.

Speed on the turf is a quality that many of these successful stallions have
used to their advantage, and the Kentucky-based MILITARY, who is by leading sire
Danzig from a solid grass orientated family, fits this profile. A wire-to-wire
winner of both the 1998 Oak Tree Turf Championship S. (G1) and the Citation H.
(G2), several of his progeny, such as son Pirates Bite, who won last summer’s
Regaey Island S. at Ellis Park, have used this tactic to pull off upsets.
Military’s best runner is Gun Salute, who pulled off an upset in the 2005
Secretariat S. (G1) at Arlington Park from just off the pace, a prime example
of this young stallion’s ability to produce top-class turf competitors.

MORE THAN READY (Southern Halo), whose race resume includes a victory in the
seven-furlong King’s Bishop S. (G1), finished fifth in the second season sire
list last year. Being a somewhat more commercial type sire than the previously
mentioned stallions, many of More Than Ready’s progeny end up with high-profile
connections, limiting the prospect of value. Seventeen of his 34 progeny who
tried the turf last year won at least once, proving himself as a legitimate “A”
rated turf producer. However, the $67 win payoff his son Prevy posted when
racing on the grass for the first time at Lone Star this past summer shows that
value can found with More Than Ready’s offspring.

The oldest stallion on this list is the 18-year-old REPRICED, a son of the
great turf influence Roberto. His biggest racing success came through a
front-running win in the Oceanside S. at Del Mar in 1991 and with eight crops of
racing age, he has sired 12 stakes winners, including Rich in Spirit and Spruce
Run who both won Group 3 events in 2005. Repriced has been an “A” rated turf
sire for the last two years. With winners such as Azidiscount, who paid his
followers a huge $105 at Kentucky Downs in his first turf attempt, Repriced
continues to merit close attention with turf runners over a mile or farther.

The youngest sire of the 10 is FREUD (Storm Cat), who is perhaps most famous
for being a full-brother to the sensational racehorse and sire Giant’s Causeway.
A Group 3-placed sprinter in England, Freud stands in New York. With his first
crop racing last year, he has made a promising start to his turf stallion career
with four winners from eight horses to try the surface, one being stakes-placed.
As mentioned earlier, one must be careful in making assumptions about stallions who
have had few runners, but it will be a surprise if Freud does not prove to be
worthwhile for handicappers to follow.

“A” sires

Bertrando

Concorde’s Tune

Freud

In Excess (Ire)

Military