ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN
JANUARY 11, 2006
by James Scully
Saturday’s Aventura S. featured a field of 12 sophomores over the one-turn,
one-mile distance at Gulfstream Park and the top prize went to DOCTOR DECHERD
(Louis Quatorze), who dueled with ITSALLBOUTTHECHASE (Devil His Due) through the
stretch before getting up for a nose decision. The early pace was reasonable
(:23 1/5 and :46) and the winner raced close to the front before splitting
rivals at the top of the lane to emerge with the advantage.
The runner-up made his move from off the pace, rallying four or five wide
around the far turn to reach contention, and appeared poised to go right on by
Doctor Decherd, sticking his head in front at one point, but Itsallboutthechase
hung a little bit as the winner gamely re-rallied. The duo separated themselves
at the wire from third placer MY GOLDEN SONG (Unbridled’s Song),
who didn’t draw much support at 7-1 despite stellar connections (Todd
Pletcher/John Velazquez) and a two-for-two mark.
The 9-5 favorite, IN SUMMATION (Put It Back), could not last on the lead with
Jerry Bailey, faltering in upper stretch to finish fifth. After winning his
first five starts sprinting, the Florida-bred has dropped two in a row at longer
distances.
The top pair didn’t come home fast (26 1/5 seconds). Doctor Decherd, who
rewarded backers with a win payout of $31, was all out through the stretch and
received a modest 94 BRIS Speed rating. His previous victory, a gate-to-wire
blowout, came over the speed friendly track at Keeneland, and it’s difficult to
get excited about his chances around two turns.
Don’t throw Itsallboutthechase out the window yet. He had a much worse trip
than the winner, and the Gary Simms charge is
better suited to two-turn races anyway. He was spotting seasoning to most rivals in his
first attempt against winners and will only improve off this effort. The bay colt wrapped up his juvenile campaign
with a visually impressive victory in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at
Churchill, blowing past the entire field while extremely wide on the far turn.
He earned a 105 BRIS Late Pace rating for that easy score.
A big weekend is ahead with the return of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) hero
STEVIE WONDERBOY (Stephen Got Even) in Saturday’s San Rafael S. (G2) at Santa
Anita. Don’t be surprised if he gets beat.
The likely juvenile champion must get past Hollywood Futurity (G1) winner
BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark), who holds a fitness edge over his main rival and will
be hard to catch at the one-mile distance. Brother Derek was no match for Stevie Wonderboy
at Belmont Park, but the talented colt finished a good fourth and then captured
the December 17 Hollywood Futurity in convincing fashion.
Doug O’Neill, who has laid out three preps before the Kentucky Derby (G1),
won’t have Stevie Wonderboy at 100 percent off the 2 1/2-month layoff. He’s
focused on the big picture and trains one of the most promising Juvenile
winners ever. Stevie Wonderboy displayed a blistering turn of foot in both the
Breeders’ Cup and Del Mar Futurity (G2), and he’s loaded with stamina on both
sides of his pedigree.
The chestnut colt won’t run back to his whopping 111 Juvenile Speed rating in
his first couple of starts this year, but watch out this spring.
With this being the first installment of the Road to the Triple Crown, I’ve
provided a top 20 list of Kentucky Derby hopefuls with comments.
1) Stevie Wonderboy — The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile jinx is built upon a
long list of previous winners who weren’t able to stretch out to 1 1/4 miles
six months later. That’s not the case with Stevie Wonderboy, who locked up
champion two-year-old honors with a superb 1 1/4-length triumph. He earned a 113
BRIS Late Pace rating in the Juvenile and looks poised for a terrific
three-year-old campaign.
2) Bluegrass Cat (Storm Cat) — After breaking his maiden in late September,
Bluegrass Cat easily annexed the one-mile Nashua S. (G3) and was then tested in
the 1 1/8-mile Remsen S. (G2), turning back a serious challenge in the stretch
to win going away. Trained by Pletcher,
the bay colt is a half-brother to 2005 Grade 2 winner Lord of the Game (Saint
Ballado) and hails from the female family of Grade 1 winner Dance Number, dam of
champion Rhythm. The royally bred colt could give Storm Cat his first
Kentucky Derby winner.
3) First Samurai (Giant’s Causeway) — Champagne S. (G1) and Hopeful S. (G1) winner
suffered his first defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he still earned
tremendous BRIS Speed ratings (107-104-104-108) last season and should get
stamina from his sire, Giant’s Causeway. His dam is another story. Freddie
Frisson (Dixieland Band) was all speed and her only other foal to race is a
sprinter. Her dam, Frisson (Fappiano), didn’t produce any two-turn horses. First
Samurai showed the ability to rate in the Champagne and Breeders’ Cup, and the
Frank Brothers-trained colt remains a top contender for the Kentucky Derby.
4) Private Vow (Broken Vow) — Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) winner didn’t get the
opportunity to prove himself against better competition when his rein broke
during the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he certainly distinguished himself in
every other start at two, including a good win in the Futurity S. (G2). Private
Vow isn’t expected to make his three-year-old bow until March for Asmussen, and
he could go to the Kentucky Derby off only two prep races.
5) Brother Derek (Benchmark) — Norfolk S. (G2) victor faded to fourth in the
stretch of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he bounced back with an outstanding
one-length tally in the Hollywood Futurity. There’s plenty of speed on his dam
side, but Brother Derek has excelled in both two-turn starts so far and is a
major player for the upcoming prep races in California.
6) Barbaro (Dynaformer) — Can he transfer his form to the main track? The dark bay
colt has dominated his competition in three turf starts so far, winning his
debut by 8 1/2 lengths, the Laurel Futurity by eight and the Tropical Park Derby
(G3) by 3 3/4 lengths on January 1. Trainer Michael Matz believes Barbaro will
excel on the main track, and we’re eagerly anticipating his first dirt attempt.
7) Bob and John (Seeking the Gold) — Didn’t earn a big Speed rating (89) for his romp in
the Real Quiet S. (disqualified to second) two starts back and finished a
non-threatening third in the Hollywood Futurity last out, but he showed good
progress at two and should keep improving for Bob Baffert. Bob and John is out
of Grade 3 winner Minister’s Melody (Deputy Minister), whose granddam is
Broodmare of the Year Too
Bald (Bald Eagle), the dam of Exceller, Capote, and Baldski. He could be much better at three.
8) Henny Hughes (Hennessy) — Juvenile runner-up was clearly one of the best
two-year-olds in 2005, but how will he do around two turns? Henny Hughes is
wintering in Dubai, which means he’ll probably point to the UAE
Derby (UAE-G1) on March 25 and then get six weeks off before the Kentucky Derby. That
schedule will make things more difficult for the speedy colt.
9) Your Tent or Mine (Forest Camp) — Attracted attention with sharp maiden and
allowance tallies in his first two starts and then rallied to be a good second,
beaten only a length, in the Hollywood Futurity. Trained by Neil Drysdale, the
lightly raced colt has earned excellent Speed ratings (101 and 100) so far and
owns plenty of room for improvement. His pedigree is slanted toward shorter
distances, but Your Tent or Mine ran big in his first two-turn attempt .
10) Superfly (Fusaichi Pegasus) — Superfly broke his maiden in a
listed stakes at Delaware, his first start around two turns, then finished a
decent third in the Champagne. He rallied from far back for fifth in the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and his last two starts came around only one turn at
Belmont. A full brother to Belmont S. (G1) runner-up Andromeda’s Hero, his granddam, Make Change
(Roberto), placed in the Alabama S. (G1), Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and
Mother Goose S. (G1). Superfly clearly wants a route of ground. and could
blossom at three for trainer Nick Zito.
11) Fabled (Tale of the Cat) — Two for two overall, Fabled wrapped up his juvenile
campaign with an impressive victory in a seven-furlong allowance at Churchill
Downs, easily defeating eventual Aventura S. winner Doctor Decherd in the
process. By Tale of the Cat, the Zito-trained Fabled should get plenty of
endurance from his dam side and is training for his sophomore bow. He’s one to
watch.
12) Doc Cheney (Saint Ballado) — Another Zito representative, Doc Cheney won his
first two starts sprinting, including a smart score in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance
at Calder on December 17. The first foal out of 2001 Milady Breeders’ Cup H.
(G1) runner-up Lady Melesi (Colonial Affair), Doc Cheney is bred to run long and
looks very promising.
13) Music School (A.P. Indy) — His dam, the stakes-winning Delta Music (Dixieland
Band), is out of multiple Grade 1 queen Prospectors Delite (Mr. Prospector), the
dam of Horse of Year Mineshaft, so the pedigree is there for Music School. He
captured his only career outing in smashing fashion at Churchill Downs and is
training at Oaklawn for Neil Howard for his three-year-old debut. The dark bay
colt is a sleeper.
14) Stonesider (Giant’s Causeway) — Rallied boldly to be up in time in his career bow at
Belmont in June, earning a strong 98 Speed rating, and then went to the
sidelines. The well-bred colt has returned to worktab for Pletcher and is sure
to draw plenty of attention in his first start back. Stonesider has the same
sire, Giant’s Causeway, as First Samurai, but his dam, Added Gold (Gilded Time),
captured the Black-Eyed Susan S. (G2) around two turns. He’s got some talent and
looks well-suited for routes.
15) Sorcerer’s Stone (Gulch) — Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3) winner
would rank higher if health wasn’t an issue. After finishing a decent sixth in
the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the Pat Byrne-trained colt underwent surgery to
remove a chip. We’ll see if he can make it back in time.
16) Achilles of Troy (Notebook) — Captured Saturday’s Count Fleet S., the launching pad for
Smarty Jones’ three-year-old campaign, by 14 lengths in a stakes record time, and
the Paraneck-owned gray earned a
whopping 109 Speed rating for the mile-and-70-yard event. He’s won two straight
for trainer Jennifer Pedersen since adding Lasix.
17) Enforcement (Tiznow) — Liked his Del Mar performance, a four-length romp
over maiden special weight rivals that was good for a 95 Speed rating, but he
hasn’t raced since late July. Baffert expects him back in time, and Enforcement
is bred to relish longer distances. Hope he returns to worktab soon.
18) Noonmark (Unbridled’s Song) — His dam, In the Storm (Storm Cat), is a half-sister to Formal Gold, and Noonmark ran away from his maiden rivals to win by 10 1/4 lengths at Belmont
Park in his second career start, earning excellent Speed and Pace numbers. He’s
training in South Florida for Asmussen.
19) Strong Contender (Maria’s Mon) — Left a favorable impression when capturing his
debut at Arlington last June, and he’s back working for trainer John Ward. He
brought $800,000 as a two-year-old in training, and Strong Contender has the
pedigree to run long. He could make some noise when he returns.
20) Fidrych (Grand Slam) — A half-brother to a pair of stakes winners, the John Servis
trainee broke his maiden at Philadelphia Park in his second start and then
rolled to a 12 1/2-length victory over allowance foes at Meadowlands. Fidrych
didn’t face much in those starts, but he looked good doing it. We’ll see him at
Oaklawn this winter.