HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
MARCH 10, 2006
by Dick Powell
Is the glass half full or half empty? Or in FIRST SAMURAI’s (Giant’s
Causeway) case, is it one-tenth full or nine-tenths empty?
Last Saturday’s Fountain of Youth S. (G2) from Gulfstream Park was First
Samurai’s first chance to try two turns. He was an even third in the Breeders’
Cup Juvenile (G1) at Belmont going 1 1/16 miles to end his juvenile season on a
sour note, setting off the naysayers. The two horses that beat him that day
will not be competing in this year’s Triple Crown, so many handicappers made
First Samurai a reluctant leader in the division earlier in the year.
In the Hutcheson S. (G2) going 7 1/2 furlongs on a very sloppy track at Gulfstream, First Samurai was not able to get by the brilliant KEYED ENTRY
(Honour and Glory) and finished 1 1/2 lengths behind in very fast time as
the 3-5 favorite. More disappointment followed, setting off a mad rush to find someone
else to hype for this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1).
But the fact is that even if First Samurai were to win the Triple Crown this
year he wasn’t going to beat Keyed Entry that day at that distance on that
track. BRIS gave him a career best 110 speed rating for the Hutcheson and he
looked primed and ready for his two-turn debut in the Fountain of Youth.
However, one thing that First Samurai had against him was the dreaded
“bounce” theory. When a horse runs a career-best race, they usually react
negatively to the stress of the effort and run poorly next time out. Even with
two strong workouts since his last start, First Samurai was a definite candidate
for a bounce.
In the Fountain of Youth, Edgar Prado sent First Samurai right to the front
in the short run to the first turn. He showed he is athletic enough to break
well and use his natural speed to gain position but mature enough to relax once
Prado asked him to. So far, very impressive. They were able to hold the lead in
the run down the backstretch while covering the first half in :48.30 over a track
that seemed to get slower as the day went on.
After a :24.06 second third quarter, First Samurai still had the lead around
the far turn but he was under heavy pressure. Flashy Bull (Holy Bull) was
pressing the pace on the outside and the enigmatic Corinthian (Pulpit) was
passing horses willingly to gain ground on the outside. As the field
straightened out in the stretch, Corinthian seized the lead and looked like a
sure winner, but the fireworks were just about to begin.
An impressive winner of a first-level allowance event going nine furlongs
here a month ago, he lugged in before the eighth pole and forced Prado to take
up aboard First Samurai. Prado swung to the outside and began to get back into
the race, but Corinthian began to bear out in the stretch, carrying First
Samurai out about four paths and into Flashy Bull as they neared the finish
line.
Corinthian finished first by a length and Prado won the battle for the place
by a neck over Flashy Bull. Immediately, Corinthian’s number began to blink and
Prado filed a claim of foul. Once the head-on replay was shown, it was obvious
that Corinthian was coming down and First Samurai’s gutsy response after being
interfered with enabled him to win his two-turn debut.
You can analyze the Fountain of Youth 10 times and
come up with 10 different reactions. With the dearth of Derby prep races,
how you analyze this race will have dramatic implications on how you are going
to handicap the Derby itself. Here’s my take:
On Saturday, Corinthian ran the best race in terms of effort. He gained
ground on the leaders with no trouble despite a slow pace and exploded when
Javier Castellano asked him to go. His fourth quarter of :23 and change was
extremely impressive. However, his fourth quarter, run from midway around the far
turn to midstretch, was faster than his others and his erratic running was not a
sign that he was getting tired, but that he is still very green.
Yes, he has a world of talent and I love his pedigree for distance racing on
the dirt. The Fountain of Youth was his second start of the year, second start
going two turns and only his fourth lifetime start. His trainer, Jimmy Jerkens,
is a top horsemen but still hasn’t found the key to getting him to run straight.
In today’s world of racing as little as possible, he will probably only have one
start between now and the first Saturday of May, and he is going to have to gain the
experience and maturity he needs in the morning, not in
the afternoon. Some horses figure it out but others never do, so Corinthian will
always be a risk until he can prove he can run straight and fully utilize his
world of talent.
Flashy Bull and My Golden Song (Unbridled’s Song) ran strong races despite
eventful trips. They were part of a three-horse place photo, but if you dislike
First Samurai — and many do since he closed at 16-1 odds in Kentucky Derby
Future Wager Pool Two — how do you like these two horses he beat after he was
taken up and then carried out?
My take is that First Samurai showed that he can rate nicely, show late
energy (last three-eighths run in :36.64) and show courage under adverse
conditions. Sometimes the Kentucky Derby resembles a Demolition Derby, and First
Samurai showed that he can get down and dirty. The fact that he was passed after
setting a very slow pace is less important to me since I don’t believe that
he’ll be anywhere near the early lead when the big money is on the line.
He gave four pounds to the entire field and BRIS gave him a 101 speed rating, so even when he bounced he was right there with Grade 2 types.
Here’s what worries me about First Samurai. Not only is he racing at
Gulfstream Park, but he’s training there. He’s had nine timed workouts — many of
them very fast — and two races. Last year, when Gulfstream re-surfaced their
main track it was dramatically slower with a deeper, kinder cushion.
This year, Gulfstream looks like the old Gulfstream with blazing-fast running
times being run on the main track. The effect of racing and training over a
rock-hard surface usually shows up down the road. If First Samurai goes to
Keeneland for the Blue Grass S. (G1), he’ll be virtually unbeatable on
that speed-favoring track.
But the key will be how much wear and tear he has to endure between now and
May 6. Is he the best of his class? In my mind, the answer is yes, but obviously
I am in a shrinking minority. But whether or not he will be the same horse two
months from now is the real question. If he is, we’ll all be kicking ourselves
for not betting more money at 16-1 odds.