ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN
MARCH 15, 2006
by James Scully
CAUSE TO BELIEVE (Maria’s Mon), the El Camino Real Derby (G3) winner, entered
Saturday’s California Derby as the overwhelming favorite and exited with a
four-length victory. The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained colt will be a late nominee
to the Triple Crown and is expected to make his final prep for the Kentucky
Derby (G1) in the April 8 Illinois Derby (G2).
The California Derby took a weird twist in the stretch when SINISTER MINISTER
(Old Trieste) veered inward. The Bob Baffert-trained runner-up broke running in
the 1 1/16-mile event and was rank early before finally settling down a little
on the backstretch. Sinister Minister entered the far turn in good shape,
opening up on his nearest rivals as the late-running Cause to Believe launched
his rally from the back of the five-horse field, and he reached the top of
the lane with about a six or seven-length advantage over the 1-2 favorite.
However, the pacesetter was cornering extremely tight, so much so that track
announcer Michael Wrona said “railing like a greyhound,” and a moment later,
Sinister Minister rammed into the inner fence. The horse and jockey Martin
Garcia were lucky to escape serious incident as they veered into the rail again,
with the three-year-old losing his action as Garcia frantically tried to right
their course, and Cause to Believe blew past them. Once he got his stride back,
Sinister Minister continued on admirably, winding up 14 lengths better than the
third-place finisher at the wire. Sinister Minister’s supporters were left
wondering whether he would’ve won if he could’ve run straight, but that
contention is very debatable. The pacesetter was tiring and Cause to Believe was
closing fast. The winner’s performance was still far from overwhelming.
Cause to Believe hasn’t earned strong BRIS Speed ratings while beating up on
questionable company in his last two starts. It looked like he would win by open
lengths when he surged to the lead in midstretch of the 1 1/16-mile El Camino
Real Derby, but pacesetter Objective (El Corredor) came back again late to
reduce the margin to less than a length at the wire. That rival got drubbed next
time out in the Santa Catalina S. (G2). Sinister Minister broke his maiden over
$62,500 maiden claiming rivals in late January and then ran poorly in the San
Vicente S. (G2). He made his route debut on Saturday and didn’t look like a
horse who wanted to go two turns when climbing early. We’ll see whether Cause to
Believe can show more while being tested for class and distance in the
nine-furlong Illinois Derby.
At Gulfstream Park on Saturday, SHOWING UP (Strategic Mission) stamped
himself as an up-and-coming Triple Crown prospect with a sharp 2 1/4-length
allowance score. Trained by Barclay Tagg, the chestnut colt dueled for the lead
from the start before shaking free on the far turn and then withstood a game
challenge from runner-up Chatain (Forest Wildcat) in midstretch before drawing
clear late, finishing the mile in a snappy 1:34. He earned an excellent 107 BRIS
Speed rating and remained perfect in only his second start.
Winner of his career bow on February 11, Showing Up is playing serious
catch-up against much more seasoned rivals at this time of the year. One thing
he has going for him is talent. A half-brother to six-time stakes winner and
2003 Pennsylvania Derby (G3) runner-up Gimmeawink (Elusive Quality), he’ll make
his two-turn debut in the April 8 Wood Memorial (G1) and will be a late nominee
to the Triple Crown.
Four races this Saturday have major Kentucky Derby implications. Here’s a
preview.
In the Rebel S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park, LAWYER RON (Langfuhr) is the horse to
beat. Unbeaten on the dirt (five for five), he exits an authoritative win in the
one-mile Southwest over the track and will bring a four-race winning streak into
the 8 1/2-furlong Rebel. STEPPENWOLFER (Aptitude), RED RAYMOND (Deputy
Commander) and MUSIC SCHOOL (A.P. Indy), the 2-3-4 finishers in the Southwest,
will all be back looking to do more over the added distance, and Kentucky Jockey
Club S. (G2) hero PRIVATE VOW (Broken Vow) will finally reappear under silks for
trainer Steve Asmussen. The big question is whether any horse will run with
Lawyer Run early. Trainer Bob Holthus believes his charge can handle pressure or
rate off other speed if he has to, but Lawyer Ron hasn’t faced that issue yet,
dominating each start on the front end since switching back to the main track in
December.
The Gotham S. (G3) also has plenty of intrigue. The star of New York racing
this winter, ACHILLES OF TROY (Notebook), will make his highly anticipated
graded debut in the 1 1/16-mile race over the inner track. He’s won his last two
starts at the Big A, the Whirlaway S. and Count Fleet S., in smashing fashion
and registered whopping Speed ratings of 110 and 107. The litmus test comes in
the form of two highly promising shippers, KEYED ENTRY (Honour and Glory) and
SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (Sweetsouthernsaint). Keyed Entry is three for three overall
for Todd Pletcher and exits a highly commendable triumph in the 7 1/2-furlong
Hutcheson S. (G2), defeating First Samurai (Giant’s Causeway). The speedy colt
has never been two turns but is bred for endurance on his dam side.
Sweetnorthernsaint, who has won his last three by a combined 33 3/4 lengths,
exits an impressive 10-length romp in the Miracle Wood S. at Laurel.
The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) will have a top Kentucky Derby contender in
BLUEGRASS CAT (Storm Cat), who will be back for his second tour of the
facilities after capturing the Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs in his
seasonal bow. Unbeaten in his last four starts, including the nine-furlong
Remsen S. (G2) in November, Bluegrass Cat makes it look easy while not beating
his competition by large margins. He owns a huge upside, so anything short of a
victory on Saturday will be disappointing.
The San Felipe S. (G2) will be impacted by Bob Baffert, who will likely send
four to the starting gate after avoiding Brother Derek (Benchmark) with his best
three-year-olds in the recent Santa Catalina S. (G2). BOB AND JOHN (Seeking the
Gold) is the most accomplished, winning the Sham S. (G3) by 4 1/2 lengths last
out and placing in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) as a juvenile. The silver-haired
conditioner also has POINT DETERMINED (Point Given), an
allowance/optional-claiming victor at Golden Gate Fields most recently, and
last-out maiden scorer POINT OF IMPACT (Point Given). Both are lightly raced
individuals who could continue to develop into legitimate Kentucky Derby
contenders with a solid showing in the San Felipe. We’ll find out more about
REFINERY (Victory Gallop), a good-looking allowance winner around two turns for
Richard Mandella last time out, and learn whether a change in barns and tactics
works for A. P. WARRIOR (A.P. Indy). A $1.3 million yearling purchase, A. P.
Warrior was transferred to John Shirreffs after failing to rate successfully in
his last two attempts and looms as a wire-to-wire threat on Saturday under new
jockey Corey Nakatani.