HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
APRIL 21, 2006
by Dick Powell
Bus goes down the street.
Dog chases the bus.
Dog catches the bus.
Now what?
With apologies to Al Goldstein, this is how I feel now that most of the major
Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races have been run. Am I supposed to pick the Derby
off of these races?
Last Saturday saw the final two major Derby prep races run. First up was the
Blue Grass S. (G1) at Keeneland. Scheduled to be run at nine furlongs, it might
as well have been just a 200 foot run to the first turn because that’s how long
it took for this race to fall apart.
Garrett Gomez, who is quickly becoming “Mr. Grade 1,” sent SINISTER MINISTER
(Old Trieste) right to the front despite breaking in the air. Gomez was intent
on making the lead no matter how hard he had to use his mount. He might be based
in Southern California, but the talented rider knew that the home field edge was
inside speed.
The BRIS Track Bias Stats for nine furlongs at Keeneland show an enormous
advantage for those who run on the lead and from inside posts. Sinister Minister
drew post 7 so Gomez was going to put the pedal down and make the lead and
the rail no matter what. He cleared the field but had to go :22.91 for the first
quarter and :45.88 for the half.
This wasn’t a problem for anyone worrying about using too much energy too
early. This is Keeneland, where the rail is not “golden” – it’s platinum. By
now, Sinister Minister had a seven-length lead and, instead of trying to rate
him, Gomez was just along for the ride.
Strong Contender (Maria’s Mon) began to make a move up the inside down the
backside and looked like he might be the one to go after the runaway leader.
First Samurai (Giant’s Causeway) went three wide heading into the far turn but,
as soon as he looked like he might be finding his best stride, he began to spin
his wheels and lose all momentum.
Bluegrass Cat (Storm Cat), the 9-5 favorite, was having trouble keeping up
and now it looked like Sinister Minister might just hang on. Over a main track
that played slow all day, he zipped through six furlongs in 1:09.94 and turned
for home with a widening lead. He wasn’t going to hold on, he was going to blow
this field away by a huge margin. Even slowing down and covering his last three
furlongs in a pokey 38.91, Sinister Minister drew off to a 12 3/4-length score
over 65-1 closer Storm Treasure (Storm Boot) with Strong Contender another 4 1/2
lengths back in third.
Bluegrass Cat ran a one-paced fourth, beaten by more than 21 lengths, and
First Samurai is off the Derby trail after running fifth and finishing 30 1/4
lengths behind.
With the fast final time, and slow times throughout the rest of the day, BRIS
gave Sinister Minister an enormous 116 BRIS Speed rating. This is by far the
fastest BRIS Speed rating for any three-year-old this year and only
Sweetnorthernsaint (Sweetsouthernsaint)’s 114 in the Illinois Derby (G2) comes
even close.
A former maiden claimer when trained by Rafael Becerra, Sinister Minister
joined the Bob Baffert barn early this year and ran terrible in the
seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) when they tried to get him to relax. Next up was
the California Derby at Golden Gate, where he had a big lead into the stretch
and suddenly started banging into the rail with a furlong to go. Cause to
Believe (Maria’s Mon) went right by him to an easy victory but when that one was
beaten 10 1/4 lengths when third in the Illinois Derby by Sweetnorthernsaint, it
didn’t seem that Sinister Minister would be up for his Grade 1 debut.
Already, Baffert is laying the groundwork for his strategy two weeks from
now. After the race, he stated that Sinister Minister cannot be rated and will
make the lead no matter how fast he has to go. If you train another speed horse,
you’ve been put on notice – try to make the lead at your own risk. With POINT
DETERMINED (Point Given) and BOB AND JOHN (Seeking the Gold), Sinister Minister
might provide Baffert with the right pace scenario.
I don’t think Sinister Minister has a prayer of winning the Derby or even
being in the money, but he will be one of the keys to how the race is run. The
difference between Sinister Minister and War Emblem is that War Emblem showed that he could
put big races back to back (running a huge race to win an allowance, then coming
right back to run another huge race in the Illinois Derby), while Sinister Minister has not shown that he can do
the same.
Last Saturday’s Blue Grass was the last one that will ever be run over Keeneland’s blacktopmacadamasphaltconcrete main track. Keeneland’s board of
directors voted on Wednesday to install Polytrack between now and the start of
their fall meet in October.
I don’t care what they put in – Polytrack or Poli-Grip – it doesn’t matter.
Just rid us of a main track that often turned a day’s races into a sprint for
the lead and the rail.
There were no surprises at Oaklawn Park as LAWYER RON (Langfuhr) dominated
the Arkansas Derby (G2) as the 1-2 favorite before a huge crowd of 72,484. Once
again, he showed his versatility by showing speed out of the gate, avoiding the
traffic jam on the first turn, and then rallied up the rail down the backstretch
where John McKee seized control of the race.
Shaun Bridgmohan and Private Vow (Broken Vow) gave chase and looked like he
might make a race of it, but Lawyer Ron pulled away to a 2 3/4-length win over Steppenwolfer (Aptitude) with Private Vow back in third.
BRIS gave Lawyer Ron an extremely mediocre 101 Speed rating and, coupled with
his other two Oaklawn Park races where he didn’t break 100, he’s a tough one to
judge. The question of who he is beating and why his running times are not as
fast as other races will only be answered two minutes after he enters the gate
at Churchill.
Lawyer Ron has had 14 starts and there is little chance that he has some aces
in the hole where he is going to show more improvement. For Lawyer Ron, what you
see is what you get and right now you are seeing an extremely professional colt
that has exploded since trying dirt going two turns. He lost all five starts on
the turf, two on Turfway Park’s Polytrack, but is seven for seven on the dirt.
Like Sinister Minister and Sweetnorthernsaint, Lawyer Ron raced in a maiden
claimer early in his career but has developed into a top quality three-year-old. He romped
in his lone start on a sloppy track and has the ability to go to the front or
sit just off the pace. He might not win the Derby, but you have to figure that
he’ll have the lead pretty late in the race.