ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN
APRIL 12, 2006
by James Scully
Saturday’s three major prep races delivered plenty of excitement. BROTHER
DEREK (Benchmark) and SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (Sweetsouthernsaint) took all the
suspense out of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Illinois Derby (G2),
respectively, with stirring performances, and BOB AND JOHN (Seeking the Gold)
answered the bell with a 1 1/2-length win in the Wood Memorial (G1).
Brother Derek was the biggest star of the day, establishing himself as
the likely Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite with another dominant win on the front
end. Three for three this year and perfect from five career attempts around two
turns, the Dan Hendricks-trained colt seized control at the outset and powered
away from his closest pursuer, San Felipe S. (G2) hero A.P. WARRIOR (A.P. Indy),
entering the stretch. Brother Derek cruised to the finish line under wraps,
registering a 113 BRIS Late Pace rating after running his final eighth in :12 4/5 seconds,
and earned another superb BRIS Speed rating of 105.
He’ll bring outstanding credentials to Louisville, Kentucky. Brother Derek
has been untouchable on the track this year and has trained brilliantly in
recent weeks at Santa Anita. Saturday’s event marked his first start at 1 1/8
miles and produced his biggest winning margin to date, 3 1/4 lengths. He owns
top-notch Speed ratings and is a model of consistency, winning six of eight
starts, the lone unplaced effort being a good fourth in the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile (G1). The California-bred has also proven very ratable and possesses
the right running style for the Kentucky Derby. Brother Derek is the horse to beat
if he can get 1 1/4 miles at Churchill Downs.
Distance is the biggest issue for him. Jockey Alex Solis rose up in the
saddle a few yards from the wire, and Brother Derek’s stride shortened as the
bay colt quickly pulled himself up after the finish line, with runner-up POINT
DETERMINED (Point Given) blowing past him. We wanted to see Brother Derek gallop
out strongly, but that didn’t happen in his first attempt beyond 1 1/16 miles. Perhaps looks were deceiving, but the difference between nine and 10
furlongs can’t be understated for many three-year-olds. With a female family
slanted toward speed, Brother Derek has always had pedigree issues with the
Kentucky Derby. He’s the best three-year-old in the country at 1 1/8 miles, but
the Santa Anita Derby didn’t answer questions about his ability to handle an
extra furlong.
Point Determined stalked the pace in third and didn’t appear to be traveling
well on the far turn, but he finally leveled off when switching leads in the
stretch and rallied to be a solid second, 1 1/2 length better than A.P. Warrior.
The well-bred colt will bring improving form to Churchill Downs, where he
figures to receive a much better pace scenario, and he’s still got the potential
to develop into a very formidable three-year-old for Bob Baffert, a three-time
Kentucky Derby winner. Point Determined finished only a half-length back in his
stakes debut, the San Felipe, and continued to impress with his second straight
triple-digit Speed rating (101) on Saturday. The Santa Anita Derby provided him
more seasoning and could be a launching pad to bigger and better things, but the
real question is whether he can make enough strides over the next four weeks to
challenge.
A.P. Warrior at least made a run at the winner on the far turn, but he was no
match for Brother Derek and wound up being outfinished for the place. His
connections haven’t decided whether to pursue the Kentucky Derby, but nobody
will blame them for giving the Grade 2 winner another chance, especially given
the wild results from last year’s Kentucky Derby. It would be much more
interesting to see this talented colt laying in wait for his rivals in Baltimore
Sweetnorthernsaint looked like a major threat for the Kentucky Derby
in his 9 1/4-length score. Trained by Michael Trombetta, the Florida-bred opened
his racing career with a 12th in a turf maiden special weight event at Colonial
Downs and then finished first in a maiden claiming race at Laurel Park in
mid-December. He’s been a Speed figure monster this year, earning a 107 four
starts back, followed by a 105 and a 107. In the Illinois Derby, the dark bay
gelding received a 114. The only thing jockey Kent Desormeaux has to worry about
in the stretch was keeping his mount focused as Sweetnorthernsaint romped
unopposed. His final time (1:49 4/5 with a final eighth in :12 1/5) was very
impressive over the tiring Hawthorne oval.
The competition can be criticized, but Sweetnorthernsaint is doing everything
right heading into the Kentucky Derby. He entered the Gotham S. (G3) two starts
back untested and broke from a terrible post (10) over Aqueduct’s inner track,
which naturally resulted in him being carried wide into the first turn. He
continued to travel well off the rail the rest of the way and entered
the stretch run in apparent trouble, threatening to finish out of the top four.
However, Sweetnorthernsaint kicked it into gear late that afternoon, earning a 108 BRIS
Late Pace rating with a last-grasp surge that fell three-quarters of a length
short, and he took another step forward in the Illinois Derby, recording a
whopping 121 Late Pace number. He overcame post 10 on Saturday and will head to
Churchill Downs in outstanding form.
MISTER TRIESTER (Old Trieste) wound up unopposed on the early lead and held
on gamely for the place after being passed. A maiden
winner only two starts back, the Glen Stute trainee entered the Illinois Derby
off a fourth in the Santa Catalina S. (G2) and turned in a very creditable
effort. Mister Triester could win some nice prizes later this year, but he
probably doesn’t want any part of 1 1/4 miles. CAUSE TO BELIEVE (Maria’s Mon)
had every chance to catch the runner-up through the stretch, but the late runner
wound up a disappointing third in his first attempt at nine furlongs. Despite
his pedigree, the Grade 3-winning colt doesn’t look like a three-year-old who
wants longer distances.
The Wood Memorial has been subject to criticism due to the 40 2/5 seconds
that it took Bob and John to complete his final three-eighths of a
mile, but the race came over a sloppy Aqueduct track that was producing slow
times and he still earned a respectable 103 Speed number. More importantly, the Baffert charge is finally beginning to live up to the promise heaped upon him
last season. The dark bay colt stalked in third Saturday as 4-5 favorite KEYED
ENTRY (Honour and Glory) set an unopposed pace and jockey Garrett Gomez treated
the Wood as if it was a two-horse race, going after the pacesetter as they
entered the stretch drive. Bob and John dueled with his rival, pulled
clear in deep stretch, and was never seriously threatened by the late-running JAZIL (Seeking the Gold), who earned a 121 Late Pace rating for his flying
runner-up finish.
Third in the Hollywood Futurity (G1), Bob and John was a gangly juvenile who
needed time to mature. He earned an excellent 106 Speed rating when capturing
the 1 1/8-mile Sham S. (G3) in early February, but he didn’t beat much and
class concerns remained following a troubled
third at even-money in the San Felipe. His connections have every reason to
believe that the best is still yet to come after watching him ship to New York
and easily win by 1 1/2 lengths, but it’s important to remember that his effort
came over a wet track against questionable company. The Wood didn’t stamp him as
one of the favorites, but Bob and John definitely improved his Kentucky Derby
stock with an encouraging performance that he could continue to build upon in
the coming weeks.
Jazil looms a wise guy selection if the track comes up off on Kentucky Derby
Day, but he’s got the potential to prove dangerous at long odds regardless of
conditions. A maiden winner in his final two-year-old appearance, the bay colt
opened his sophomore campaign with a sharp second to Corinthian (Pulpit) and got
banged around pretty good when finishing a better-than-it-appeared seventh in
the Fountain of Youth (G2). Jazil traveled hopelessly behind during the early
stages Saturday before offering a terrific late run, making up nearly 10 lengths
in the final quarter-mile, and I’ll take a long look at any three-year-old
trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. The Wood runner-up looks like a rapidly improving
youngster with a bright future.
We’ve got two big races on tap this Saturday, the Blue Grass S. (G1)
at Keeneland and Arkansas Derby (G2) at Oaklawn Park, and it appears that
both races will attract large fields. Rebel S. (G3) victor LAWYER RON (Languhr),
who has never lost on a dirt track, is the one to beat in Hot Springs, and the
Blue Grass will feature a showdown between FIRST SAMURAI (Giant’s Causeway),
STRONG CONTENDER (Maria’s Mon) and BLUEGRASS CAT (Storm Cat).