Pedigree Handicapping

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

MAY 20, 2006

by Tim Holland

As stressed in the article entitled “Ten ‘A’ turf sires for handicappers to
profit from in 2006,” which appeared on January 13th, one of the most valuable
assets that a horseplayer can own is the ability to spot overlays. With that in
mind, the selected stallions had not only owned a good strike rate on the grass
the year before, but had also produced successful runners which had been
overlooked by the public. After four months of racing completed, but with the
bulk of turf racing still to come, this is a good time to re-evaluate these 10
sires.

UNUSUAL HEAT was possibly the most profitable of the group to follow in 2005
and since January 13th he has not let his supporters down. Indeed, at the end of
that month his son Add Heat made his turf debut a winning one, returning more
than $90 in the process. Unplaced in his next start, a mile event which was
taken off the turf, Add Heat returned to the surface and distance of his prior
win and posted another upset, this time at odds of more than 9-1. The bay colt was outclassed
in his latest race, which was a stakes race against open company, but he should
be watched next time if returned to state-bred company. In addition to Add Heat,
other sons of Unusual Heat that provided the stallion’s followers with
double-digit payoffs on the Santa Anita turf were Heated Rebel, Evrybdyluvsdaheat and Hot Melody.

Standing in California, BERTRANDO scored a coast-to-coast turf double on
February 8 when Legal Logic represented him with a $43 mutuel at Santa Anita and
Karelian obliged at Gulfstream Park at odds in excess of 12-1. Karelian won again at
Keeneland in April and these two helped Bertrando to be profitable to follow in
the first part of the year.

As a somewhat commercial type stallion it seemed that value might be hard to
find when following the offspring of MORE THAN READY. However, that is not the
case. Indeed, Ready’s Gal and Black Snake paid handsomely at Tampa Bay and
Gulfstream, respectively, but their returns paled in comparison to the $40.60
that supporters of More Than Pretty received when she won a five-furlong stakes
race at Churchill Downs in her first attempt on the turf. Meanwhile, while
foreign races have not been reflected in any of the statistics on this page, a
son of More Than Ready named Ceres Dynamic claimed victory in a turf sprint in
Japan at odds of no less than 188.40-1.

MILITARY is the fourth profitable sire on the list due to his son General
Fox, who paid $27 at Santa Anita, and to the $20.60 mutuel his daughter Wicklow
Vamp posted when winning at Gulfstream.

FREUD and PERFECT MANDATE have had limited opportunities so far but REPRICED
and IN EXCESS (Ire) have been slightly disappointing. The former has been
represented by runners that have made 22 starts on the turf between them with
just one resulting win while the offspring of In Excess have fared slightly
better with four wins from 38 attempts.

Finally, the results for the Florida-based WILD EVENT and CONCORDE’S TUNE may
appear somewhat below par at first glance. However, better can be expected now
that the tough Gulfstream meet has finished and racing is now conducted at
Calder where runners from these two stallions are more in their element. Indeed,
this point was proven when River Of Dreams, by Wild Event, won at Calder on
April 30th, paying $42.60 after two unsuccessful efforts at Gulfstream.

While it should be stressed that betting all these stallions’ offspring on
turf without looking for value would be foolish, it is interesting to see how a
flat $2 bet on these runners would have fared since January 14:

(*To a $2.00 stake)

Another category that stallions are ranked by in the Sire Stat book is for
first-time starters. In the Handicapper’s Edge of February 3, eight sires that
were ranked “A” were selected as stallions whose progeny might provide value in
that situation:

With four wins, which all returned double digits, since February 4 from 16
first-time starters, MUTAKDDIM has continued to prove what an underrated sire he
is. The first of the four winners, Okie Time at Oaklawn, was ignored by the
public who dispatched him at 11.30-1 despite the fact that he had the fastest
workout of 80 horses a week earlier, and was handled by a trainer, Kelly Von
Hemel, who does well with debutants. The same barn later sent out a daughter of
Mutakddim, Seekingthereinbow, to win her first start returning $19.80 while near
the end of the Turfway meet Muted Word won her debut in a $15,000 maiden claimer
at odds of nearly 18-1. Meanwhile, the win of Downthedustyroad in her second
start served as a reminder that one needs to give these runners another chance
if they had a valid excuse in their first attempt. Indeed, Downthedustyroad was,
according to the charts “forced in at the start” in her debut, but she made
amends in her next race rewarding her followers with a $16.80 payoff.

The first-time-out win at Oaklawn of Stormy Destin at odds of more than 10-1 put
his sire, STORM AND A HALF, in positive territory in this category while Just Jonesin ($13.60) did the same for SENECA JONES at Lone Star. Meanwhile
Rockavalentine, also by Seneca Jones, reinforced the “another chance” notion
when she won her second start, at Sam Houston, with Lasix added, returning
$50.60.

FIVE STAR DAY has had two winners from seven first-time starters and
Judgement Day fell short of adding a nice payoff for this stallion when beaten a
neck at odds of 9-1 in his debut at Santa Anita.

The remaining four selected stallions have had limited opportunities so far
with one win between them from 12 tries.

A third list (April 1st) suggested eight freshman sires that should be worth
watching:

Stallion Runs/Wins Profit/Loss

With the two-year-old races just now getting under way the eight have only
had five runners to represent them. However, it was very encouraging that the first
runner to represent LITTLEEXPECTATIONS was a winner, paying a very healthy
$36.20.