ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN
MAY 18, 2006
by James Scully
BARBARO (Dynaformer) will continue his quest for the Triple Crown in
Saturday’s Preakness S. (G1), and his emphatic Kentucky Derby (G1) victory left
us anxiously awaiting his next performance. The 1 3/16-mile Preakness
presents new challenges — can he reproduce his Kentucky Derby effort off a
two-week rest and run down BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark) — but exceptional horses
overcome obstacles. Six of the last nine Kentucky Derby winners have gone on to
win at Pimlico, and Barbaro certainly has a lot going for him.
Fast and explosive, Barbaro is the most dominant Kentucky Derby winner in a
long, long time. Six-for-six in his career, he brings an aura of invincibility
with him every time he appears on the racetrack. Barbaro is also regally bred
with the pedigree to relish the 12-furlong distance of the Belmont S. (G1), so
the prospect of a Triple Crown winner is very tangible for the Thoroughbred
racing world. While it’s easy to get caught up in the prospects of ending a
28-year Triple Crown drought, Barbaro must still get past Saturday unblemished.
He’ll face two quality rivals in Brother Derek and SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (Sweetsouthernsaint). The Preakness offers a spot for
redemption following an uncharacteristic showing at Churchill Downs, and
both probably didn’t give a true account of themselves last time. Afleet Alex,
Tabasco Cat, Hansel, Risen Star, Snow Chief and Gate Dancer are examples of
talented three-year-olds who took advantage of that opportunity following a subpar effort in the Kentucky Derby.
Barbaro must avoid regressing. He’s never taken a step back in his career and
exits his best race by far. In his favor, the Kentucky Derby didn’t appear too
grueling as he cruised through the stretch, never being seriously asked while
running one of the fastest final quarter-miles ever in the 132-year-old race. Trainer Michael Matz
did a superb job plotting his schedule this year to leave something in
the tank for the Preakness and Belmont, breaking modern-day conventions by
bringing him into the Kentucky Derby off more than a month layoff and with only
one start in the previous 13 weeks.
It’s difficult to knock him, but we must still examine all possibilities. Barbaro is used to getting substantial periods of time between starts, having never
started without at least a five-week rest. Perhaps the short two-week hiatus
won’t be to his liking off a monstrous performance at Churchill Downs. He captured both the Holy Bull S.
(G3) and Florida Derby (G1) by narrow margins (less than a length), defeating
Great Point (Point Given) and Sharp Humor (Distorted Humor), respectively. His 6
1/2-length Derby score blows those races away. The last two undefeated
Kentucky Derby winners, Smarty Jones and Seattle Slew, had crushed opponents in their prep races,
so the Kentucky
Derby didn’t represent such a colossal improvement over their previous form. Barbaro
is a lightly campaigned three-year-old.
Brother Derek owns plenty of foundation, competing in the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile (G1) and defeating champion Stevie Wonderboy (Stephen Got Even) earlier this year,
and was flattered in defeat in the Kentucky Derby, coming again in the stretch
despite racing ridiculously wide and losing a shoe.
The multiple Grade 1 winner will make Barbaro come and
catch him with his speed, something that was impossible for him to do in the
Kentucky Derby, so the tables will be turned for this classy opponent. Sweetnorthernsaint has never beaten horses of the same caliber, but his BRIS
Speed ratings are outstanding and the Kentucky Derby may prove to be a throw out. He
had to work hard to reach a striking point that afternoon and came up empty.
With a more favorable trip in a shorter field, Sweetnorthernsaint might offer
the same explosive turn of foot on Saturday that marked his 9 1/4-length Illinois Derby (G2) win.
Despite the merits of these talented challengers, the general feeling of the
Preakness is easy to sum up — if the same Barbaro shows up who won the Kentucky
Derby, the rest of the field is doomed. They’re hoping to move forward while
Barbaro takes a step back. It should be fun to watch.
The Preakness won’t offer much of a betting opportunity. I’ll use Barbaro and
Brother Derek in Pick 3s and Pick 4s, and I hope to enjoy a great race.